Analyzing the RFA Insanity
By Ken Grashoff
Portland Posse
Rafael Palmeiro SIGNED by
Returned to
Analysis: As a platoon DH with a .890 OPS vs. righties, is worth 3.5 million for last year. The key of the contract will be if he can produce one more above average season on his way to
Kris Benson MATCHED by
The Mets acquired Kris Benson's services from the Pirates on July 30 along with infielder Jeff Keppinger in exchange for infielder Ty Wigginton, pitcher Matt Peterson and infielder Jose Bautista. After posting a 3.01 ERA in his final 10 starts with
Analysis: A reasonable deal for a guy that should be a #3 starter for the next 5 years. Health will always be an issue, but then again, it’s an issue for all pitchers.
Contract Worth - $21M
Erubiel Durazo MATCHED by
Considering how slowly Erubiel Durazo got going in 2004, it is amazing that he generated the totals he did. It took until April 21 for Durazo to register his first RBI of the season, and he had just one home run until he homered twice on the last day of April in
Analysis: One of the more solid FA resignings, well worth every penny that he received. Look for him to have 2-3 more consistent years.
Contract Worth - $23M
Troy Percival MATCHED by
Each season that goes by, it becomes harder and harder for one of the most consistent closers of all time to do his job. But each year, Troy Percival finds a way. After dealing with a degenerative hip condition in 2003, he had inflammation in his right elbow last year that kept him out for most of June. But after struggling in May and June, Percival returned with a vengeance. He converted 21 of his final 22 save chances while picking up his 300th save along the way. Percival is one of only five pitchers to reach 300 saves with one team. Just as Percival once took over for an aging Lee Smith, he now yields to Francisco Rodriguez. The Angels announced in early November that they would not be offering Percival a contract extension after 10 seasons in
Analysis: Over rated for 2004, look for a continuing decline in performance. Not worth the $10M.
Contract Worth - $5M
Julio Lugo MATCHED by
Julio Lugo established himself as a starting player with a solid 2004 season, though it isn't clear where he will be starting. The Rays briefly moved him to second base, then quickly moved him back to shortstop.
Analysis: While we might not like him due to his off field behavior, it was smart to match. He is slightly better than average, with $2M the right amount for his contract. With some of the inflated contracts that were signed, this one ends up looking good.
Contract Worth - $7M
Kevin Millwood SIGNED by
Kevin Millwood pitched his way out of the Phillies' plans in 2004. That was a crushing disappointment both for the team, which had made him the No. 1 starter for the second straight season, and for Millwood himself, who filed for free agency on the first allowable day after the World Series. He made only 25 starts, mostly due to elbow tendonitis that landed him on the disabled list. Conditioning became an issue-he never went deeper into a game than seven innings and only managed to pitch that long six times. When healthy, Millwood has shown the ability to pitch 200 innings. That alone should give him some value on the free-agent market after the Phillies declined to offer arbitration. There will be teams willing to take a chance that they can get him back on track, although it remains to be seen if he still can command the kind of four-year deal that he turned down from the Phillies in 2003.
Analysis: 3.24, 4.01, 4.85, hmm, notice a trend? Arm trouble may be catching up with him. That Estrada/Millwood deal sure looks better for the Braves, doesn’t it? While he may have a good season still in him, a very dangerous signing at $20M.
Contract Worth - $11M
Trot Nixon SIGNED by
Despite
Analysis: Health is the key issue here. If he stays healthy than this is a good FA pickup. If.
Contract Worth - $18M
Tim Wakefield MATCHED by
For the second consecutive season, Tim Wakefield spent the entire year in
Analysis: A good backend of the rotation guy that should keep you in a ballgame. How long will he keep going, who knows, he’s a knuckleballer.
Contract Worth - $7M
Brian Giles SIGNED by
When the Padres traded Oliver Perez and
Analysis: Was last year an aberration, or is he getting old. If he can improve slightly, then this was a good pickup. I look for more of the same for the next couple of years, than a decline. By the way, looks like
Contract Worth - $23M
A.J. Burnett MATCHED by
The unquestioned ace of the Marlins' staff before he blew out his elbow in April of 2003, A.J. Burnett made a triumphant return from reconstructive elbow surgery. He made it back a little over 13 months after the operation, and after some early spottiness became the club's second-most reliable starter after Carl Pavano. Burnett was shut down with some minor inflammation in his elbow following an 11-strikeout win over the Cubs on September 12. He might have made another start or two, but with the playoffs out of reach, caution was exercised and he made just one relief outing. Due a substantial raise from $2.5 million through salary arbitration, Burnett could be the highest-paid pitcher on the staff if Pavano leaves via free agency. Regardless, Burnett will be counted on to be a 200-inning horse who regularly gives the Marlins 120 pitches per start. He still has the stuff to contend for a Cy Young someday soon.
Analysis: Which will come first, Cy Young or injury. If he can pitch 200 innings 4 out of the next 5 years, then this will be a good contract. Otherwise its money down the toilet.
Contract Worth - $24M
Melvin Mora SIGNED by
Melvin Mora's season began with a rash of errors at his new full-time position-third base. It ended as his most productive season in the majors. He finished with the second-highest batting average and the best on-base percentage in the American League. Mora's 27 home runs and 104 RBI were major surprises to the Orioles. A torrid May had Mora hitting .391 as late as May 28, and he showed more power during the second half. Mora will be the Orioles' starting third baseman this season with two more years left on a three-year deal. The 33-year-old Mora won't sneak up on American League pitchers this season, and he shouldn't be expected to improve upon his 2004 performance. Look for his batting average to drop closer to the .300 mark.
Analysis: Coming off of a career year, he is actually worth his contract for the first couple of years. The key will be years 4 & 5 as we see him hit his late 30’s.
Contract Worth - $32M
Eric Milton MATCHED by
Eric Milton was the Phillies' most dependable starter, the staff leader with 14 wins and the only member of the rotation to pitch at least 200 innings.
ANALYSIS: If you can keep from hurting you’re neck watching all the HR’s fly out, not a bad pitcher. He’s also not a good pitcher either, with his career 4.76 ERA. $5M over 5 years is asking for trouble. Signing in
Contract Worth - $13M
Bret Boone SIGNED by
Bret Boone got off to a slow start at the plate in 2004 and never recovered. He hit .195 in May and .213 in June as the Mariners continued their freefall in the American League West Division. Boone's .251 batting average with 24 homers and 83 RBI were, by far, the worst offensive numbers he's posted in
ANALYSIS: Once a top 10 2B, his age, combined with the difficulties of hitting in
Contract Worth - $10M
Jeff Suppan MATCHED by
Jeff Suppan proved to be yet another shrewd acquisition by the Cardinals' canny general manager Walt Jocketty. Signed to a two-year contract plus a club option in December 2003, Suppan won a career-high 16 games, including 10 on the road-the second most in the National League. He finished strongly by winning 13 of his final 18 decisions, then becoming the Cardinals' best starter in an otherwise disappointing postseason rotation. The Cardinals could not have expected more out of Suppan than they received. Signed for another season with an option in 2006, he would appear to be set in the
ANALYSIS: A decent number three or four starter, needs a good defense behind him. May see his numbers decline next year as the
Contract Worth - $11M
Eric Chavez MATCHED by
So many little things hurt
As natural a hitter as one will find, Chavez has good reactions and ever-improving strike-zone judgment, as his quantum leap in on-base percentage in 2004 reflects. Once again it looked like Chavez was going to put up that .300-30-100 season everyone has come to expect, but his 2004 season was cut short by injury. He did come back strong, though, and the skills set is still there. Chavez is primed with the experience and discipline necessary to deliver an MVP-type season. Watch for it in 2005.
ANALYSIS: That’s a whole lot of money, the most to any player in Free Agency. Definitely overpaid this year, he may earn his money when he puts together his MVP season next year.
Contract Worth - $42M
Rheal Cormier SIGNED by
At age 37, Rheal Cormier set a franchise record for appearances by a lefthander by pitching in 84 games. And he got better as the year went on, posting a 2.28 earned run average after July 31 as the preferred left-handed setup reliever in the bullpen. While he couldn't repeat his career best numbers (8-0, 1.70) from 2003, he remained an important member of the staff. Cormier's stuff may not be as good as it once was. However, he has enough veteran's savvy to use his fastball (which routinely sits at around 88 MPH), slider and changeup to set hitters up for his out pitch, the splitter. He's equally effective against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He fields his position well and has a good pickoff move. Because of his role, he rarely is called on to bat. Cormier had talked about retiring after the 2004 season, but his strong finish changed his mind and he signed a two-year, $5.25 million extension. While he's reaching the point of his career that may require him to be used more as a middle reliever than a setup man, he still projects as a valuable member of the bullpen.
ANALYSIS: The best reliever available in RFA, he will justify his salary for the next two years. Anything after that would be gravy. His usage in Philly will be the key.
Contract Worth - $ 6M
Mike Piazza MATCHED by
A left knee injury that cost him more than three weeks in August and an unsuccessful stint at first base led to another disappointing season for Mike Piazza. He batted a career-low .266, nearly 50 points lower than his career average, to mark the third straight year he has batted below .300. With a roundtripper on May 5, he became the all-time home-run leader among catchers. Assuming he remains with the Mets, in part because of his $15 million salary, Piazza should catch in the neighborhood of 110 games this year if healthy. The wear and tear of catching means Piazza is not a young 36, and his decline is reminiscent of what Johnny Bench endured at a relatively early age. But with Piazza apparently unable to make a change in position, his days as an offensive standout appear to be numbered.
ANALYSIS: While worth the first two or three years of the contract, expect the last couple years to be an anchor, weighing down the team. Can you say 5th year buy out?
Contract Worth - $15M
Barry Zito SIGNED by
What happened to the Barry Zito magic in 2004? Had the league simply figured him out? Were hitters sitting on his curve? Was he hurt? Was he tired? Did he miss former pitching coach Rick Peterson? There were no easy answers, as Zito struggled for most of the year. Although Zito was a bit better during the second half, 2004 has to be considered a disappointment for a pitcher who traditionally has been a dominant force after the All-Star break. Heading into the 2005 season, more eyes will be focused on Zito than just about any other
ANALYSIS: This really amounts to a 4 year contract with the hopes of a rebound, as the current year is mediocre at best. Even with a rebound, the south paw will be hard pressed to produce numbers that equal the value of his contract.
Contract Worth - $26M
Jim Thome SIGNED by
Jim Thome is coming off a disappointing season-at least, as disappointing as a 42-homer, 105-RBI season can be. The problems started in spring training when a bad-hop grounder during infield practice fractured the tip of his right middle finger. It ended with a bruised chest in September. Partly as a result, Thome hit only 14 homers in the second half. Despite that, he recorded the 400th home run of his career and had his sixth straight season with 100 walks and 100 RBI. There's no doubt that Thome remains the key hitter in the Phillies' lineup, and the one player his teammates most look up to. He has the never-too-high, never-too-low approach to every game that's considered ideal for the daily grind of baseball. The Phillies believe that if Thome stays healthy and gets some protection around him, there's no reason he can't bounce back and have a terrific season.
ANALYSIS: One of the best hitters in baseball, put him in the #3 spot and watch him tear it up. The big question is will he reach 600 HR’s? Not worth $56M, but hey, its play money anyways.
Contract Worth - $38M
Ramon Ortiz SIGNED by
Two years ago, Ramon Ortiz won 16 games. That just obscured what wasn't a very good year, and his downhill trend continued in 2004. Ortiz won the fifth-starter job in spring training, but lost it after April. After that, Ortiz was relegated to the bullpen, where he wasn't very happy. Ortiz grumbled, demanding a trade at several points, but was actually fairly solid as a reliever. The Angels declined Ortiz' $5 million option for 2005, making him a free agent. It appears his future will lie elsewhere, because the Angels have plans to upgrade their rotation and won't need Ortiz as a long reliever either. There's no reason he can't rebound and be a solid starter on another team.
ANALYSIS: Look for Ortiz to have two decent years out of the next four. Is that worth $13 million, no. Then again this contract won’t kill the team, and they may have a number 4 starter for the next 3-4 years.
Contract Worth - $8M
Moises Alou SIGNED by
After a miserable June (.192 BA), Moises Alou performed like an old warhorse and wound up with a career-best 39 home runs. He also was able to shake off nagging back and calf injuries to play in 155 games, second-most in his career. In a clubhouse lacking vocal leaders, Alou did his best to prod his teammates, but his comments in July complaining about the team broadcasters being negative may have been misguided. Umpires grew weary of Alou slamming his equipment to the ground and complaining after calls went against him. Alou talked hopefully of returning to the Cubs in 2005, but the club did not pick up his option, making him a free agent. Although he will be 39 in July, he is coming off two productive seasons in which he played 150-plus games. If he stays healthy, he may have at least one good year left.
ANALYSIS: Whats a little urine between friends. A great season last year, needs to have one more huge year to make this contract worthwhile.
Contract Worth - $17M
Curt Schilling SIGNED by
Returning to the club that originally drafted him, Curt Schilling won his first seven decisions at
ANALYSIS: A number one ace, but this contract was the worst one of all the contracts(unless retirement is an escape clause). Even 4 years 44 million was too high. Long term effects of a torn ankle tendon, who knows?
Contract Worth - $28M
Jeff Bagwell SIGNED by
Jeff Bagwell always has had early- and midseason slumps. But this year's started in June and lasted much longer than the previous ones, haunting him all the way through August. He began to come out of it in September and was instrumental in the team's late-season surge, tying Jeff Kent for most September RBI on the team with 22 apiece. He also shook his history of poor playoffs by hitting .286 with a pair of homers and eight RBI. Bagwell no longer is the player he once was, but he doesn't need to be to help this team. His quiet intensity and professional approach have a settling effect on the younger players. And if he can continue to adjust his swing to the shoulder problems, he can help the team at the plate. Only time will tell how quickly his skills will continue to deteriorate.
ANALYSIS: Worth the money for last year, may have one more superstar year in him as he adjusts his hitting to compensate for his shoulder problems. Astro effect may see his numbers lessened.
Contract Worth - $18M
Kerry Wood SIGNED by
After exceeding the 30-start mark in each of the previous two seasons, Kerry Wood missed two months of the 2004 season with a strained right triceps. The injury allowed him to pitch only 140.1 innings, his lowest output since 2000, when he was coming back from reconstructive elbow surgery. Wood also finished below .500 for the first time in his career. Inconsistency plagued Wood down the stretch, when he won just one of his last eight starts. Nobody has to tell Wood he had a subpar 2004. He's his own worst critic, and he's not afraid to say he's failed when it's true. The Cubs locked up Wood with a two-year contract extension last spring. His offseason conditioning has gotten better each year. Reaching 200 innings is a point of pride with Wood. No doubt he'll come to camp driven to reach that goal.
ANALYSIS: One of many pitchers signed during FA that are overpaid, injuries(notice a trend here) have kept him from being the kind of pitcher that we expect. Look for a strong season next year.
Contract Worth - $31M
Brad Radke - $ 45 million,
Based purely on how he threw the ball, Brad Radke may have had his best season as a pro in 2004. Yet, a lack of run support and the Twins' strange propensity to lose close games that Radke started cost him an 18-20 win season. Usually, Radke suffers through a dead-arm period somewhere in the middle of the season, which damages his statistics and victory totals, but he remained strong and durable throughout 2004. His ability to pitch 219.2 innings was one reason the Twins' bullpen was so effective. Radke is the kind of pitcher for whom the quality-start statistic was invented. Even when he lacks his best stuff, he's capable of pitching seven innings and allowing just two or three runs. Although he has won more than 12 games only three times, he's the kind of smart, put-it-in-play pitcher who can win 18 to 20 games if he stays healthy and receives good fielding and run support from his team. He will stay in
ANALYSIS: Had a great season last year. Equally effective vs. lefties & righties. Will make a nice number one for this year, then a number three starter for the next two/three years.
Contract Worth - $29M
Kevin Millar - $ 22 million,
For Kevin Millar, the ringleader of the 2003 "Cowboy Up" Red Sox, 2004 began inauspiciously. His first-half power production and RBI were down, and by June he was hearing regular boos from the Fenway fans who'd once adored him. When his playing time briefly waned, he offered the season's most public criticism of manager Terry Francona's use of lineups. Then, just before the All-Star break, Millar caught fire. He batted .322 with 53 RBI from July 1 on, pushing his full-season numbers into their typical range while providing his usual enthusiasm. Millar may be best suited to a full-time DH role, but that won't happen in
ANALYSIS: Underrated, put together his best OBP of his career by getting hit 17 times(previous high of 8). Who did he piss off(see Moises Alou). Now 33, Look for a couple more years of continued success.
Contract Worth - $16M
The Angels locked up one of their homegrown talents just as injuries began to slow down his stellar career. Garret
ANALYSIS: Will we see the
Contract Worth - $18M
Esteban Loaiza - $ 10 million,
The makeup wore off as Esteban Loaiza could not repeat the Cy Young-type performance of 2003 in 2004. He returned to pre-2003 form before being acquired from the White Sox on July 31. The trading-deadline deal proved to be fruitless for the Yankees, as Loaiza amassed just one win and an 8.50 ERA with
ANALYSIS: Hmm, how do you evaluate Loaiza. Current year worth nothing. Can he repeat 2003, no. Can he match his career ERA of 4.7, yes. So lets say one year at 4.4, one year at 5.0. Whats that worth, oh, about $5M.
Contract Worth - $5M
Reggie Sanders - $ 17.75 million,
Playing for his seventh different team in as many years, Reggie Sanders had an inconsistent, but overall solid season in
ANALYSIS: A good third outfielder to have one your team. Does better in the odd years(check it out). If he can have one more good odd year(yes, I just said that) then he’ll be worth more than what I have him listed at. I don’t think it will happen.
Contract Worth - $8M
Rondell White - $ 12 million, Portland
A free agent who signed a two-year, $6 million contract to play with his sixth team in five seasons, Rondell White started out quickly and faded fast. During the first six weeks of the 2004 campaign, White had seven home runs and 30 RBI. But over the final 18 weeks of the season, he had just 12 home runs and 37 RBI. In mid-May, his batting average was .331. By the end of the year, it was .270. He also missed some time in September with a strained hip flexor. There is a role for White in the major leagues, but it is not as an outfielder. He can be the regular DH on a winning club, but it is not a good sign for a club when he is playing in the outfield. Teams keep trading for or signing White because they like his bat, but the honeymoon is often short because of his struggles in the field.
ANALYSIS: See Reggie Sanders. He may outperform his numbers since he plays in
Contract Worth - $10M
Vinny Castilla - $ 19 million,
After a four-year absence, Vinny Castilla returned to
ANALYSIS: Two negatives. How will
Contract Worth - $13M
Jason LaRue - $ 18 million, Los Angeles
Jason LaRue had maybe his best all-around season, batting over .250 for the first time and setting a career high in RBI. LaRue was in double figures in home runs for a fourth straight season as well. He came on strong in the latter part of the season, batting .280 after the All-Star break. The Reds know that LaRue strikes out too much and can have his share of trouble behind the plate. However, he has become an increasingly dependable receiver, and he brings the added dimension of power with his bat. The Reds think that if LaRue can carry his second-half improvement into this season, he can take his play to another plateau and perhaps reach 20 homers and 70 or so RBI, which would be a huge bonus for the
ANALYSIS: A good catcher, his OPS has went up for 3 straight years. Expect his numbers to remain consistent for the next couple of years, then decline.
Contract Worth - $14M
Over $800 million spent in FA this year. The average player was overpaid about $8 million(in this writer's opinion).