                          2008 Gold Glove Winners
                          -----------------------


Welcome to our review of the Rawlings Gold Glove awards, which are given to the
top fielders in each league as selected by a vote of the managers and coaches
that is taken before the end of the regular season.

Writing this article is a natural extension of the work we've been doing each
winter since 1986 to develop accurate fielding ratings for the annual Diamond
Mind Baseball season disk.  To come up with those ratings, we:

- evaluate team defense using a variety of metrics that range from simple to
advanced, all of which help us evaluate the ability of each team to turn
grounders and fly balls into outs, overall and in different parts of the field

- use play-by-play data licensed from STATS LLC to compute adjusted range
factors that take these potential biases into account and focus only on those
putouts and assists that provide the best indication of fielding skill.
Catching a popup on the infield or taking a throw on a force play are examples
of plays that generate assists and putouts without telling us much about
fielding skill.

- use play-by-play data to compute the number of plays each player made above or
below the norm for his position given the mix of balls hit his way; we call this
our "net plays" analysis

- look at the STATS zone rating and our own zone rating to get another look at
individual fielding performance, being careful not to be fooled by zone ratings
that are significantly affected by error rates (our job is to come up with
separate measures for range and error rates)

- assess the interaction between neighboring fielders, such as a third baseman
cutting off grounders that might otherwise be handled by the shortstop, by
examining the number of plays made by each fielder and by the team in the zones
where the responsibility overlaps

- measure the percentage of batted balls turned into outs in home and road games
to assess how each park influences measures of team and individual defense

- look at range factors, which are assists and/or putouts per nine defensive
innings;  however, we look at them more out of curiosity than as an important
measure of fielding ability because range factors can be (and often are) skewed
by the nature of a team's pitching staff:  the left/right mix, strikeout rates,
and tendency to generate ground balls versus fly balls, among other things

- use play-by-play data to measure other skills that are specific to certain
positions, such as the ability of middle infielders to turn double plays, the
ability of pitchers and catchers to shut down the running game, and the ability
of outfielders to prevent runners from taking extra bases on hits and fly balls

- cross-check individual players against our team defense measures to make sure
they are consistent

- where possible, look at video clips for a large number of plays involving
fielders for whom our analysis suggests a level of performance that is
inconsistent with their reputations

We believe very strongly that it is only through a combination of these methods
that one can accurately evaluate defensive performance.

Do the Gold Glove voters have this information at their disposal when making
their selections?  It's extremely doubtful.  More likely, their votes are based
on traditional fielding statistics, reputations, and appearances.  That's not
necessarily a bad thing.  Some of the time, our analysis concurs with the Gold
Glove selections, in part because the best fielders are going to look good no
matter how you evaluate them.

But there are some differences, so we'll go position by position, commenting on
the Gold Glove winners (who are listed in the titles for all positions other
than outfield) and any other candidates that we believe were deserving of
serious consideration.


Pitchers (Mike Mussina, Greg Maddux)
-------------------------------------

One important aspect of fielding performance is the ability to avoid making
errors.  It's not the only aspect, or even the most important aspect, but it
does matter.

The leaders among pitchers who fielded their position without making an error
were Roy Oswalt (54 error-free chances), Mark Buehrle (52), Kyle Lohse and
Bronson Arroyo (49), Mike Pelfrey (47), and Javier Vazquez (46).

If you can forgive a single error in favor of a guy who makes a lot of plays,
then you would also want to look at Kenny Rogers (1 error in 77 chances), Roy
Halladay (1 in 60), Ryan Dempster (1 in 53), and Jon Garland (1 in 52).

Only Oswalt was among the error-free leaders in 2007 as well, but Buehrle,
Vazquez, Rogers, and Garland have often received high praise from us in prior
years.

But this approach is simplistic, mainly because a pitcher's tendency to induce
ground balls is a huge factor in the number of assists and putouts he gets.
Fielding skill helps, of course, but the best way to pad your numbers is to get
batters to hit it back to you in the first place.

A group of pitchers emerges when you consider the relationship of plays made to
opportunities.  Among the standouts in 2007 were the following pitchers who
earned Diamond Mind's Excellent range rating:  Jesse Litsch, Justin Verlander,
Johan Santana, and Javier Vazquez, and Jon Garland.  Arroyo and Rogers didn't
miss the Excellent rating by much.

In the AL, Garland was our pick in 2007, Santana in 2006, and Rogers for the
four years prior to that.  Garland was solid again this year but did not excel
in any category, while Santana moved to the other league.  Mike Mussina, who won
the Gold Glove in 2008, was solid in all respects but didn't do nearly enough to
get our vote.  That opened the door for some newcomers and some old-timers.

Newcomer number one is Litsch, who has posted very strong range numbers in both
of his two big-league seasons.  In fact, among pitchers with at least 150
innings in 2008, he topped the rankings.  His candidacy is somewhat marred by
three errors and a relatively low total of two double plays, though he was also
very good in shutting down the running game.

Newcomer number two is Verlander, who earned our Very Good range rating in each
of his first three seasons and rose to the Excellent level this year.  His raw
defensive numbers aren't impressive because he's a fly ball pitcher who doesn't
create a lot of chances for himself, but he converts a very high percentage of
the balls that are hit his way.  Two errors, one double play, and a Very Good
record holding runners round out his resume.

Vazquez has earned our Excellent range rating for as long as we can remember.
His range numbers were down a little from his normal levels, but still good
enough to keep that streak intact.  With no errors, three double plays, and a
good record holding runners, it's hard to find any flaws in his game.

Rogers is another old-timer who is still on his defensive game.  Despite his
age, he continues to post Very Good range numbers that are almost good enough to
earn an Excellent rating.  His one error is more than offset by an astonishing
total of 11 double plays (more than twice the total of his nearest competitors),
and he is virtually impossible to run on (only 1 steal allowed all year, with
three runners picked off).

It's a very tough call this year, but we're going with Rogers.

With the exception of Mike Hampton in 2003, Maddux has won the NL award every
year since 1990.  Think about that.  It's absolutely astonishing.  Too bad the
voters have gotten it wrong several times in recent years.

Maddux is a very good fielder who generates a ton of ground balls and therefore
often posts impressive putout and assist totals.  But, as we've pointed out in
these pages on numerous occasions, others have converted a higher percentage of
their chances, made fewer errors, started more double plays, and done a much
better job of shutting down the running game.  This year was no exception.

Joel Pineiro hasn't been a very good pitcher for several years, so he probably
doesn't draw enough attention for the voters to notice that his range has been
strong for four straight seasons.  He made only one error and controlled the
running game quite well, but wasn't involved in any double plays.

Santana continued to perform at a high level in 2008:  excellent range, only one
error, one double play, very good stolen base prevention.

Oswalt's range is only average, but everything else is quite strong.  He hasn't
made an error in two seasons (and only one in the last four).  He was involved
in four double plays.  Only two runners dared steal on him and one was gunned
down.

Arroyo came out of nowhere to post strong range numbers in 2008.  In the four
previous seasons, he alternated between being a little above average and a
little below.  He was error-free and held runners well but didn't post any
double plays.

All four men are good candidates, but we give the nod to Santana.


Catchers (Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina)
-----------------------------------

Mauer and Molina have terrific defensive reputations (and Mauer can really hit,
too), but were both of these first-time winners worthy of selection?

The standard-bearer at this position in the AL has been Ivan Rodriguez, who had
another good year behind the plate.  He did a very nice job of converting batted
balls into outs and threw quite well, but made 5 errors and allowed 6 passed
balls.

With the injury to Victor Martinez, Kelly Shoppach became a regular for the
first time and showed very good agility around the plate.  But he made too many
miscues (7 errors, 8 passed balls) and didn't throw well enough to be a serious
contender.

Jeff Mathis showed great range but started only 90 games and led the majors in
errors and didn't throw particularly well.

Jason Varitek was very reliable again in 2008, making only eight miscues (4
errors, 4 passed balls).  But his agility is below average at this stage of his
career and his arm is only average.

Mauer, who has battled knee problems early in his career, was a little below
average in our range analysis.  But everything else was quite strong.  His arm
was good, and with only 3 errors and 4 passed balls in over 1200 innings, he was
the league's most reliable catcher.

Kurt Suzuki, who also played over 1200 innings at the position, had a profile
very much like Mauer's, but was a little behind him in every respect.  Dioner
Navarro also had a good all-around season.

With Rodgriguez in the decline phase of his career and nobody else (who played
enough to be seriously considered) putting together a complete defensive season,
we concur with Mauer's selection.  Last year, Mauer may well have been our
choice had he not been limited to about half the season due to injury.

The NL winner, Yadier Molina, clearly won the award based on his arm.  Without
question, his arm is outstanding and has been for years.  We have touted him as
a serious contender in the past, but we find it odd that the voters chose this
year to give him his first Gold Glove.  He started only 114 games, made 10
errors, allowed 5 passed balls, and continued to show below-average agility
around the plate.

Brian McCann played a lot more and was better than Molina in every respect
except throwing, where the difference was substantial.

Russell Martin was a workhorse for the second year in a row, but like Molina, he
made a lot of miscues in that time.  And his throwing was only average.

Geovany Soto had a solid season:  lots of playing time, only 5 errors and 5
passed balls, and average (to below average) throwing.

Jason Kendall led the majors in starts (149) and innings (1328), showed average
range, made a third fewer miscues than Molina despite the extra innings, and
threw quite well.

It comes down to Molina's arm versus Kendall's overall game.  Kendall has the
edge in innings (+326), range, and reliability.  Was Molina's arm that much
better?  Not really.  If you adjust for playing time, Molina allowed about 10
fewer steals but also threw out about 8 fewer runners (including pickoffs).
Kendall gets our vote.


First basemen (Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez)
--------------------------------------------

In a season when two of the better defenders -- Mark Teixeira and Casey Kotchman
-- split time between the leagues because they were traded for each other,
Carlos Pena and Adrian Gonzalez became first-time winners.

Pena's case for AL honors begins with reliability.  He made only two errors all
season while posting a league-leading .998 fielding percentage.  His range was a
little above average but nothing special.  He was near the league average in
starting double plays.  Not bad, but not what we would normally want to see from
a Gold Glover.

Teixeira and Kotchman earned our Very Good range rating and ranked in the top
five in the majors in fielding percentage.  If either had spent the entire
season in the AL, we would have given them serious consideration.

Last year's winner, Kevin Youkilis, had another solid season.  But even in 2007,
when he set a record by going error-free all year, we argued that Justin
Morneau's superior range was slightly more valuable.  Youkilis's range was no
better in 2008, and while his four errors were a few less than the league
average, that's not enough to merit a Gold Glove.  Meanwhile, Morneau's range
was down from a year ago, taking him out of the running despite a very
impressive .997 fielding percentage.

All things considered, we'd rank Pena third behind Kotchman and Teixeira.  But
because the other two spent a good part of the year in the NL, we're fine with
the Pena selection.

Last year, we wrote that Adrian Gonzalez had a good year and would have been in
the Gold Glove conversation had he been in the AL.  That's true again.  His
range, fielding percentage, and double play ability were all above average in
2008.  Too bad he doesn't actually play in the AL.

Once again, Albert Pujols and Todd Helton were the class of the league
defensively.  Helton isn't really a candidate because he missed exactly half the
season due to injury.  Pujols missed some time, too, but he was healthy enough
to make 140 starts and play 1215 innings.

Gonzalez and Pujols each made 6 errors, though Gonzalez has a slightly better
fielding percentage because he played more innings.  And Gonzalez was a little
better at starting double plays.  But Pujols lapped the field on our range
metrics, and we really don't understand how he failed to win his second Gold
Glove.


Second basemen (Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips)
-------------------------------------------------

Four second basemen earned our Excellent range rating this year, Dustin Pedroia
and Mark Ellis in the AL, Chase Utley and Orlando Hudson in the NL.

Ellis has always scored well on our defensive metrics, and his 2008 performance
would have been more than enough to earn our vote in many other seasons.  Last
year's winner, Placido Polanco, had another very good season.

But the voters got this one right.  Pedroia topped our range rankings, slightly
ahead of Ellis.  He was second in the majors (behind Ellis) in fielding
percentage among players with at least 1000 innings.  And he played 265 more
innings than Ellis, who started only 114 games.

We're disappointed that the NL voters went with a player who was right in the
middle of the pack on our range metrics.  It's true that Phillips led the league
in fielding percentage, but that's small potatoes compared with all of the extra
plays made by Utley and Hudson.

Utley made more plays than anyone in the league.  Hudson would have been a close
second had he not missed 57 games.  But he did miss those games, and Utley's
rate stats were slightly better anyway.  Our vote goes to Utley.


Third basemen (Adrian Beltre, David Wright)
-------------------------------------------

Adrian Beltre and David Wright were repeat winners.  We disagreed with both
choices in 2007, opting instead for Mike Lowell and Pedro Feliz.

Lowell had another very good season in 2008 but made only 108 starts due to a
torn hip labrum that was surgically repaired in October.  Feliz had an average
defensive year after a string of stellar seasons, presumably because of back
problems that limited his playing time and led to postseason surgery.

In the AL, Beltre earned our Very Good range rating and made about three fewer
errors than the average player at his position.  As usual, Scott Rolen was off
the charts on our range metrics.  His fielding percentage was a couple of points
better than Beltre's, too.

Rolen's biggest negative is playing time.  A finger injury and a shoulder strain
limited him to 115 starts.  Normally, that would be enough to disqualify him.
But Beltre also missed 25 games and Rolen played so well that he had more net
plays in 115 games than Beltre had in 137.  Our vote goes to Rolen.  For the
future, Jack Hannahan is showing signs of being a serious contender.

In the NL, it was very hard to find viable candidates this year.  We've already
talked about Feliz and his injury problems.  Only eight players were in the
field for 1000 innings or more and all of them were below average in range.
Half of them were among the league's worst in fielding percentage.

Wright's range was a little below average, his fielding percentage was slightly
better than the league, and his double play performance was weak.  Casey Blake
was average across the board.  Kevin Kouzmanoff had below average range but was
second in the league in fielding percentage.

In a down year, Troy Glaus winds up at the head of the class.  His range was
only average, but he led the league in fielding percentage (only 7 errors in 145
starts) and he was second at his position in double plays.  He gets our vote.


Shortstops (Michael Young, Jimmy Rollins)
-------------------------------------------

It was an odd year for this position.  The vast majority of the regulars were
clustered around the league average in our range metrics.  As a result, none of
them earned our Excellent range rating and a smaller number than usual were
classified as Very Good or Fair.

Orlando Cabrera topped the AL in putouts and assists, but that overstates his
value to some degree.  Those raw totals have much more to do with playing a lot
of innings behind the league's second-best ground-ball staff than with Cabrera's
range, which is average.  His 16 errors were around the league average.  A solid
year, to be sure, but that's about all.

Michael Young was second in assists, which usually indicates superior range, a
ground ball staff, or a combination of the two.  Not this time.  Young has
always been below average in our range metrics and his pitchers were below
average in ground ball percentage.  So why did Young get all those assists?
Because the Texas pitching staff and defense was so bad that they faced more
batters and allowed more batted balls than any other team in the league.

Young deserves credit for one thing.  He led the league in fielding percentage
by making only 11 errors in 670 chances.

Jason Bartlett was the only regular shortstop in the AL (minimum 1000 innings)
to earn our Very Good range rating.  With 16 errors, his fielding percentage was
a little subpar.  But we'll take his range over Young's reliability any day, and
Bartlett gets our vote.

In the NL, we picked Troy Tulowitzki a year ago.  He continued to play very well
but started only 97 games due to a pair of injuries.

Hanley Ramirez was among the league leaders in range for the first time in his
young career.  We put a lot of value on that in our evaluations, but it must be
hard for the voters to see him as a viable candidate when he leads the league in
errors.

Cesar Izturis also showed Very Good range.  Unlike Ramirez, however, Izturis was
third in fielding percentage.

Jimmy Rollins was Mr. Reliable, leading the league in fielding percentage by a
large margin with only 7 errors in 132 starts.  This was par for the course for
Rollins, who has made nearly 40 fewer errors than the average shortstop over the
past five seasons.  His range was above average, but not by a large margin.

Cristian Guzman was a milder version of Ramirez:  good range, though not quite
good enough for a Very Good rating, second in the league in errors.  Jack Wilson
was a milder version of Rollins:  slightly above average range, excellent
reliability, but only 80 starts.  Jose Reyes had another solid year in the
field.

It's a very close call, so we have no serious quarrel with the voters, but we
like Izturis by a very narrow margin over Rollins.  Izturis had a large enough
range advantage to overcome a few extra errors.  It's true that he started only
110 games at the position, but he appeared in 20 games as a defensive
replacement.  If Rollins hadn't missed 30 games himself, we might have put more
weight on the playing time difference.


Outfielders
-----------

In the AL, the voters selected Ichiro, Torii Hunter, and Grady Sizemore for the
second year in a row.  In fact, Ichiro and Hunter have won Gold Gloves every
year since 2001.  In that time, the third pick was Sizemore twice, Vernon Wells
three times, Mike Cameron twice, and Darin Erstad.

As you well know, the Gold Glove voters have a habit of picking the same guys
over and over again.  It's as if they believe fielding performance is a
constant, that it's not possible for a highly-regarded fielder to have a bad
year or a newcomer to outperform an established player.  Or maybe it's just
because they don't have any simple numbers (like fielding percentage for
infielders or caught stealing percentage for catchers) that tell the story for
outfielders.

Regardless of how it happens, we see the same names all the time, and we often
disagree.  This year is no different.

We've always believed that outfield defense is a young man's game, but the
voters often go with older players they know quite well.  Ichiro is 34.  Hunter
is 32.  Does it really make sense that they would still be among the elite
outfielders in the league?

In our view, the top outfielder in the league this year was 22-year-old Carlos
Gomez of Minnesota, who was obtained in the Johan Santana trade.  The Twins,
minus one of the very best pitchers in the game, were expected to be a non-
factor this season.  But they surprised a lot of people, and one of the reasons
was the defense provided by Gomez, who topped the CF rankings by a good margin.
They lost one elite pitcher and gained a guy who made every other hurler on the
staff a little better.

The second outstanding performer of 2008 was Carl Crawford, who led the Rays to
the top of the team defense rankings with his stellar play in left field.

Choosing the third AL winner is a little more challenging.  It takes a dominant
performance from a corner outfielder to earn the nod over any of the top center
fielders.  Besides Crawford, the only other corner outfielder to do that was
Franklin Gutierrez of Cleveland.

Gutierrez, however, played only about 2/3 of the season because his bat hasn't
been good enough to keep him in the lineup every day.  When he does play, his
defensive range numbers are off the charts.

Is Gutierrez more worthy than the other top center fielders?  Quite possibly.
Ichiro had another good year, but his home park makes him look better than he
really is.  Hunter hasn't earned our Excellent range rating since 2004 and
continues to show the normal rate of decline for someone his age.  Sizemore is a
great all-around player who, in our view, is a very capable center fielder but
not a top tier defender.  22-year-old Adam Jones was putting together a fine
season before fracturing his foot in early August.

What about Coco Crisp, our choice for this award last year?  He didn't come
close to matching his outstanding 2007 season.  In fact, he wasn't even the best
outfielder on his own team.  That honor goes to Jacoby Ellsbury, who played all
three positions at a high level.

Even though all of these players garnered a lot more innings in the field, most
in the more demanding center field position, none of them achieved as much as
Gutierrez.  So he gets our vote.

(Yes, it does seem a little odd that we would choose someone who shared an
outfielder with Sizemore.  You'd think that if Gutierrez really was better than
Sizemore, they'd put Gutierrez in center and move Sizemore to right.  So maybe
we're not giving Sizemore enough credit.  Then again, baseball history is rife
with examples of teams giving up some defense to keep star players in center
field and for letting key players stay in a comfortable position rather than
moving them around based on who else is in the lineup that day.)

As was the case last year, the NL didn't produce a lot of obvious candidates.
The voters went with Carlos Beltran, Nate McLouth, and Shane Victorino.  Which,
frankly, left us scratching our heads a little.

Carlos Beltran had another good season, and even though we don't see him as an
elite defender, he's worthy of one of the awards for 2008.

Why they chose McClouth is a complete mystery.  He had a solid year in 2008, but
there's nothing in his present or past that suggests he has anything more than
average range.  In fact, this is the first year we rated him as Average.  He was
given our Fair rating prior to that.

Victorino is less of a mystery.  Like McClouth, we've never rated him better
than Average in center.  Unlike McClouth, Victorino has a track record of
average CF range and above-average range in right.  But it's still hard to look
at our defensive metrics and see a Gold Glover.

If not these two, then who else?

Randy Winn is the best of the corner outfielders, which is not surprising given
that he has played about 800 major league games in center.  He had another
excellent year in 2008, playing mostly in right field.

Willy Tavaras patrols the spacious grounds of Coors Field at a very high level.
His raw numbers are deflated by the park, of course, but after adjusting for
context, he's clearly one of the better center fielders in the league.  His bat
doesn't always keep him in the lineup, and he missed a month due to injury, but
he did manage to start 110 games and play in another 14.

Aaron Rowand has been a favorite of ours in the past, but he's getting a little
older and his range, along with other speed indicators like triples and steals,
isn't what it used to be.

Another of our recent favorites, Austin Kearns, had a down year that included
two lengthy DL stays.

Andruw Jones had an awful year at the plate, spent a lot of the season on the DL
with knee problems, and was a non-factor in this discussion for the first time
in more than a decade.

Our choices for the NL outfield awards are Beltran, Tavaras, and Winn.
Victorino isn't a terrible choice, but we feel the other three are more worthy.


Recap
-----

Here's how my selections compare with those of the voters:

        ------- American -------        ------- National -------
  Pos   Voters        Diamond Mind      Voters      Diamond Mind

  P     Mussina       Rogers            Maddux      Santana
  C     Mauer         same              YMolina     Kendall
  1B    Pena          same              Gonzalez    Pujols
  2B    Pedroia       same              Phillips    Utley
  3B    Beltre        Rolen             Wright      Glaus
  SS    Young         Bartlett          Rollins     Izturis
  OF    Hunter        Gomez             Beltran     same
  OF    Ichiro        Crawford          McLouth     Taveras
  OF    Sizemore      Gutierrez         Victorino   Winn

This year, we agreed with the voters on only 4 of the 18 selections, an all-time
low.  From 2001 to 2007, we agreed on an average of 8-9 picks, with a low of 5
and a high of 12.
