                        2003 Gold Glove Winners (part 2)
                        --------------------------------

[This document is presented in two parts because it is too long to display
in the notes viewer in Diamond Mind Baseball version 8.]


Shortstops (Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Renteria)
-------------------------------------------

It's a classic question.  Would you rather have a guy with great range but is 
somewhat error-prone or someone who's steadier but doesn't cover as much ground?

Alex Rodriguez was very steady again this year, posting a major-league best .989 
fielding percentage and making only 8 errors in 158 starts.  And while A-Rod 
will never make people forget Mark Belanger or Ozzie Smith, his range is no 
worse than average most years, and sometimes better.  In other words, he's a 
good all-around pick.

His chief rivals in 2003 were Anaheim's David Eckstein, who was very reliable 
and showed more range than Rodriguez but played only 116 games, and Chicago's 
Jose Valentin, who got to an awful lot of balls but made 20 errors.  Eckstein 
didn't play enough to be a serious candidate, so I'll focus on Valentin.

Valentin is somewhat error-prone, there's no question about that.  His fielding 
percentage has lagged the league average every year he's been in the majors, 
sometimes by quite a bit.  Since 2001, however, he's gotten better, making only 
2-3 more errors per season than the average shortstop.

But Valentin has also been consistently better than the league in range during 
his career.  In 2003, he led all major-league shortstops in net plays made and 
adjusted range factor, and he was second (behind Eckstein) in the STATS zone 
rating.  Depending on which of these measures you prefer to go with, Valentin 
made somewhere between 20 and 56 more plays than the average shortstop.  Taking 
the strengths and weaknesses of each of these measures into account, I'd put his 
contribution somewhere in the range of 30-35 plays.

This would make it his best defensive year, but it's not too far above the level 
he's set in previous years.  Problem is, his tendency to make errors has 
occasionally cost him a full-time job, so we don't have a lot of recent history 
to go on.  But if you extrapolate his part-time 2001 and 2002 seasons into full 
years, and if you adjust for all the errors he made in 2000, Valentin has 
consistently shown the ability to reach about 20 more balls per season than the 
average shortstop.

So my vote goes to Valentin, though not by a big margin.  Rodriguez is a very 
solid choice, and I'm not knocking his game in any way, but Valentin has 
improved his error rate enough to convert his superior range into real value. 

The NL winner, Edgar Renteria, is mister average.  At no time during the past 
five years has he been more than four plays better or worse than the major-
league norm in our net plays analysis.  In 2003, compared with the average 
shortstop, Renteria made two fewer errors and converted two more batted balls 
into outs.  He was a plus in making the pivot on double plays.

If that doesn't sound to you like a Gold Glover, I'd have to agree, so let's see 
who else shows up on the radar screen.

Chicago's Alex Gonzalez is a lot like Alex Rodriguez in that he's very reliable 
and, in a good year, shows above-average range, too.  This was one of his good 
years, and Gonzalez converted 22 more batted balls into outs than the average 
shortstop.  That's partly a reflection of range, and partly due to a very low 
error rate.  Gonzalez tied for second in the majors in fielding percentage.  He 
was also well above average making the pivot on double play balls.

Houston's Adam Everett led the majors in range factor, was fourth in net plays, 
and finished among the league leaders in the STATS zone rating.  In both range 
and error rates, he was just a hair behind Gonzalez, but his double play 
performance was in the middle of the pack.

Cesar Izturis and Orlando Cabrera also deserve mention, but they didn't quite 
rise to the level of the other players I mentioned.

My vote goes to Gonzalez.  And while we're talking about him, have you ever seen 
a postseason when so many highly-regarded fielders made critical errors?  San 
Francisco's Jose Cruz misplayed a fly ball with Florida was on the ropes, an 
error by Gonzalez helped open the floodgates for Florida when they were on the 
brink of elimination in the championship series, and some bobbles by New York's 
Aaron Boone nearly helped Boston break through.


Outfielders
-----------

You won't get an argument from me about the AL choices, which were Mike Cameron 
and Ichiro Suzuki of Seattle and Minnesota's Torii Hunter.  

Seattle's outfield was far and away the best in the majors at turning fly balls 
and line drives into outs.  They can put three legitimate center fielders out 
there -- Mike Cameron, the best in the business right now, Ichiro, who was a 
Gold Glove center fielder in Japan, and Randy Winn, who played center in Tampa 
Bay before he was traded to Seattle last winter.

Cameron led all major league outfielders with 484 putouts, 47 more than runner-
up Rocco Baldelli and 60 more than Hunter.  It helps, of course, that he plays 
behind a fly-ball staff in a park that's very friendly to pitchers.  But even 
when you account for those things, Cameron turned about 40 more batted balls 
into outs than did the average center fielder.

Ichiro's raw net-plays figure isn't all that impressive until you allow for the 
fact that he shares the right-field gap with Cameron, who was about 10 plays 
above average in those zones.  Ichiro would have made some of those plays had 
Cameron not reached those balls first.  In addition, Ichiro's speed and arm 
turned a bunch of doubles and triples into singles.  

With the Seattle outfield performing at such a high level, I have no problem 
giving two of the league's three Gold Gloves to one team.  Winn was among the 
leaders in left field, too, but there are other very good outfields in the 
league, and it would be a stretch to give all three to Seattle.

One of those very good outfields is in Minnesota, where Torii Hunter patrols 
center field and Jacque Jones is in left.  Jones is once again our top-rated 
left fielder, but he started only 87 games in left after a midseason groin 
injury relegated him to a DH/PH role for much of the second half.

Hunter continues to be one of the leaders in highlight film plays, and he looked 
very good in all of our range metrics, too.  We don't think Hunter makes quite 
as many plays as his reputation would suggest, but there's no question that he's 
one of the best center fielders in the game, and he's my pick as the third AL 
Gold Glove recipient.

There are several other AL outfielders who might be worthy of consideration if 
not for the presence of these three guys.  Johnny Damon and Vernon Wells 
represent the next tier of AL center fielders and aren't all that far behind 
Hunter.  Milton Bradley posted very good defensive numbers before he got hurt.  
Among the corner outfielders we noticed are Winn, Garrett Anderson, and (believe 
it or not) Carlos Lee.

I'm sure that last name will come as a surprise to many of you.  It came as a 
big surprise to us, too, because Lee has a reputation as a defensive liability 
and has been removed for defensive purposes more often than any other fielder in 
recent years.  As a result, we spent a lot of time studying his performance, and 
here's what we found:

- Lee stole 18 bases in 22 tries this year, and his career totals are 53 steals 
and a 72% success rate, so he does have some speed

- according to our analysis, Lee had no weak spots ... he was at or above the 
league average in all zones and depths ... and while he hasn't been this good 
before, he was slightly above average in 2001 and 2002, so this type of 
performance isn't as much of a reach as you might think

- other systems place him in the top half ... he was 24 points above average in 
the STATS zone rating system, and his range factor and adjusted range factor 
were both a little better than average 

- the defensive replacements are easy to explain ... he was being replaced by 
two exceptional fielders, Aaron Rowand and Willie Harris, so even though Lee was 
getting the job done, these guys were better

- overall, Chicago's outfield converted almost as many fly balls and line drives 
into outs as did the Minnesota trio, so somebody was doing something right ... 
Rowand and Harris were major contributors, but they didn't play enough to 
explain this, and Lee appears to have done more than Magglio Ordonez and Carl 
Everett to help this outfield rank so high

Even after reviewing all of this information, I wasn't convinced.  So I decided 
to spend some time with the MLB.com video clips service.  I picked a six-week 
period and requested every play Lee was involved in.  

(MLB.com's service isn't perfect, so I was able to get my hands on only about 
80% of those plays.  But think about that for a minute.  I was able to call up 
dozens of video clips for a specific fielder in a matter of seconds, and it only 
cost me a few dollars.  Yeah, it would have been nice if I found everything I 
was looking for, but how can I complain about some missing clips when such a 
thing wasn't even conceivable a few years ago?)

It took about three hours to view the clips that were available, and I came away 
very impressed.  There must have been ten or eleven really good plays in that 
stretch.  Among them were two long runs to flag down deep fly balls in the gap.  
On two other occasions, Lee reacted very quickly to line drives and made sliding 
catches to his left.  Twice he went over the left field wall to save homeruns.  
And in what may have been his best play of that sequence, he covered a lot of 
ground to make a catch in foul territory while going up and over the bullpen 
mound at full speed.

Over in the NL, where the voters selected Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, and Jose 
Cruz, things weren't so clear.

None of the league's left fielders stood out.  Rondell White is a very good 
fielder who doesn't get much credit, but he was traded to the other league.  
Geoff Jenkins has always been at or near the top of the class, but he battled 
injuries again in 2003.  Neither was anywhere near Gold Glove caliber this year.

Three players stood out in right field.  San Francisco's Jose Cruz topped our 
net plays analysis and led the majors in range factor and adjusted range factor.  
Florida's Juan Encarnacion wasn't far behind on all counts.  And neither was 
Houston's Richard Hidalgo, who also led the majors with 22 outfield assists.

Cruz is a converted center fielder, and while he wasn't a standout at that 
position, it's not unusual for CFs to shine in the corner spots.  In 2002, Cruz 
looked very good in a limited trial in left field, so I wasn't surprised when he 
showed well in right this year.

Park factors must be considered here.  Pacific Bell Park is good for pitchers, 
especially on balls hit to right center, and that can artificially boost the 
numbers for the hometown right fielder.  Cruz benefited from that in 2003, as 
did Reggie Sanders in 2002.  But even with a significant park adjustment, Cruz 
remains among the leaders in right field.  And he was second only to Hidalgo 
with 18 outfield assists.

Encarnacion also had a terrific season in right.  In our net plays analysis, he 
and Cruz are very close after you make the park adjustments, and Encarnacion was 
number one in the STATS zone rating rankings.  In addition, Encarnacion was the 
only major league outfielder to play at least 120 games without making an error.

Having said all that, the best defensive outfielders usually play center field, 
so we can't start nominating corner outfielders until we've considered the guys 
who play up the middle.

We might as well start this conversation with Andruw Jones.  It hard to make it 
through a game, even if Atlanta's not playing, without hearing that he's the 
gold standard.  But we've been seeing signs of a decline in his once-stellar 
defensive play for the past several years.  We still think he's a good center 
fielder, but we believe he's been passed by Cameron, Erstad, Hunter, and a new 
wave of youngsters who haven't yet played enough to become household names.

Consider these facts about Jones:

- Atlanta's outfield was fourth-worst in the majors in converting fly balls and 
line drives into outs ... I'm not saying that Jones is the reason they're near 
the bottom, just that if Jones is every bit as good as they say, he'd carry them 
to a higher ranking even if he wasn't getting a lot of help

- his putout totals are declining ... he peaked at 493 in 1999, dropped to 439 
in 2000, rebounded to 461 in 2001, then slipped 404 and 390 the past two years 
... that's partly because he's missed a few games the last two years, but his 
putouts per nine innings are also down from 3.07 to 2.64 over that span

- Andruw's share of Atlanta's outfield putouts is also dropping ... in 1999, he 
was responsible for 44.5% of those putouts, but it's down to 38% and 40% the 
last two years, and that decline is only partly due to decreased playing time 
... maybe he's just deferring to Chipper and Sheffield on some of the easier 
plays, but if he's really the best outfielder in baseball, why would he do that?

- Jones was troubled at times by nagging injuries this year -- a strained muscle 
in his side, a sore shoulder, a hyperextended knee, tightness in a hamstring -- 
nothing serious, but perhaps enough to slow him down

- older editions of Total Baseball list him at 6'1" and 170 pounds ... Atlanta's 
official web site now puts his weight at 210 pounds ... I'm not sure how much to 
trust these figures, but he looks bigger, and if he really has added that much 
weight, a decline in range wouldn't come as a surprise

All things considered, I don't think Jones is the same defensive player he was 
four years ago.  But who in the NL is better?  Most of the game's top center 
fielders are in the other league.

Among the NL regulars, San Diego's Mark Kotsay is on top of our rankings for net 
plays made, and Jim Edmonds is number one in the STATS zone ratings, though both 
lag the AL leaders on both counts.  Kotsay also leads in baserunner kills, with 
Edmonds right behind him.  

Juan Pierre led in putouts, but that was a combination of playing time (161 
starts), a fly ball staff, and a pitcher-friendly park.  His range factor was 
quite ordinary, he was below average on the STATS zone rating and in our net 
plays analysis.  LA's Dave Roberts put up impressive numbers this year, but he 
started only 98 games in center.  Age has caught up with Steve Finley.

Oh, before I forget, I promised to mention some of the guys who haven't played 
much.  Jeff Duncan only played a quarter of a season but compiled defensive 
numbers that resembled Mike Cameron's.  Tsoyoshi Shinjo once again posted 
outstanding range numbers in limited time; he's headed back to Japan, though, 
because he didn't hit well enough over here to become a starter.  In the Carlos 
Lee discussion, I mentioned Willie Harris and Aaron Rowand, both of whom could 
become Gold Glove contenders if they hit well enough to play full time.

Well, I guess I've danced around the subject long enough, and it's time for me 
to go on the record with my NL picks.  It's tough because none of the center 
fielders stood out.  Center field is a more difficult position, though, so I 
don't think it's right to pick a bunch of corner outfielders just because they 
outperformed the other corner guys by a bigger margin than the CFs outperformed 
their peers.

So I'll choose two center fielders, Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay, and the 
leading right fielder, Jose Cruz, as my 2003 picks.  It's getting tougher every 
year to rubber-stamp the Jones selection, but I haven't seen quite enough 
evidence yet to conclude that he's no longer worthy.  Kotsay, in my view, was a 
little better than Edmonds.  Cruz wasn't too far ahead of Encarnacion and 
Hidalgo.


Recap
-----

Here's how my selections compare with those of the voters:

        ------- American -------      ------- National -------
  Pos   Voters      Diamond Mind      Voters      Diamond Mind

  P     Mussina     Rogers            Hampton     Rueter 
  C     Molina      same              Matheny     same 
  1B    Olerud      Mientkiewicz      Lee         same
  2B    Boone       Ellis             Castilla    Giles 
  3B    Chavez      same              Rolen       Beltre
  SS    Rodriguez   Valentin          Renteria    Gonzalez (Chi) 
  OF    Cameron     same              AJones      same
  OF    Ichiro      same              Edmonds     Kotsay 
  OF    Hunter      same              Cruz        same

We agree on nine of the eighteen selections.  Last year we agreed on eight, and 
it was twelve in 2001.  

Even though I would have gone in a different direction on half of these 
selections, I must say that the voters did a pretty good job.  In most of the 
cases where we disagreed, the winner was on my short list, and even when he 
wasn't, the winner had some important things going for him.


Other players of note
---------------------

Here are a few other players whose defensive performances we noticed, for better 
or worse, in 2003:

Jermaine Dye, RF -- Dye has been one of our top-rated right fielders for years 
but struggled to come back from a severely broken leg in 2002.  He appeared to 
recover a little of his range this year, so we bumped him up from Poor to Fair. 

Troy Glaus, 3B -- Glaus has bounced between our Average and Fair ratings over 
the years, but 2003 brought injuries to his right hand, left hamstring, left 
foot, back, and right shoulder.  His performance suffered enough to drop his 
range rating to Poor, but could rebound a little next year if he's 100%.

Ken Griffey, CF -- For the third year in a row, Griffey tried to play through 
leg injuries, and once again he wasn't anywhere near his usual self.  We rated 
him Poor because he just didn't make enough plays, but we expect his rating to 
improve with his health, assuming his health does improve at some point. 

Vladimir Guerrero, RF -- He normally earns an Excellent or Very Good rating for 
range, but he played with a bad back for much of the season and his performance 
suffered enough that he was only Average this year.  In fact, he was closer to 
Fair than Very Good.

Derek Jeter, SS -- Last in the majors in range factor.  Last in the majors in 
adjusted range factor.  Second last in the majors in zone rating.  Last in the 
majors in our net plays analysis.  And this year there were no mitigating 
factors.  No brilliant third baseman who cut off a lot of balls that Jeter might 
have been able to handle, and his team was last in the league in converting 
ground balls into outs.  So we gave him a Poor rating for range and an error 
rating that's around the league average. 

Reggie Sanders, RF -- Earned our Excellent rating last year but slipped to 
Average in 2003.  A year ago, we wondered whether his impressive defensive 
numbers had more to do with Pacific Bell Park than his own performance.  After 
adjusting for the park, he was a borderline Ex/Vg, but we concluded that he had 
earned the Ex rating, in part because he had performed just as well in Arizona 
the year before.  Now in his mid-thirties, a decline in his range is to be 
expected, but a drop of two rating points isn't something we see every day, so 
it's possible that we made the wrong call last year.

Larry Walker, RF -- It's always a challenge to rate Colorado outfielders because 
a much higher percentage of batted balls go for hits in Coors Field than any 
other place.  We do our best to measure and adjust for those effects, but it's 
not an exact science.  In most years, Walker's raw defensive numbers are below 
average, but he comes out looking pretty good after we adjust for the park.  In 
2003, his raw numbers were downright terrible and the park adjustment brought 
him up only to a Fair rating.  All signs indicate that the decline was real but 
injury-related.  During the season, Walker missed games due to a bad shoulder, a 
groin injury, and a knee problem, and is expected to undergo surgery on both the 
shoulder and the knee this winter.

Todd Walker, 2B -- Fans of range factors, take note.  Walker was well above 
average in range factor in 2002, and that got some Red Sox fans talking about 
what an asset he was going to be in 2003.  But that ranking had more to do with 
the Cincinnati pitching staff than Walker's own play that season, and our 
analysis put him near the Average/Fair boundary.  He played well enough in 2002 
to eke out an Average rating, but in 2003, he slipped back under that line.  
According to the local papers, the Red Sox didn't like his defense, and that's 
why they're not rushing to re-sign him despite his postseason batting heroics. 

Rickie Weeks, 2B -- The number two overall pick in the draft in 2003, Weeks 
torched minor-league pitching in a brief stint before being called up in 
September.  Normally, I wouldn't bother writing about a guy with a career total 
of 21 defensive innings, but Weeks made 8 errors in 23 professional games and 
his major-league range numbers were horrendous (albeit in a very small number of 
chances).  This may be a statistical anomaly, but it's also possible that he's 
just not ready to play defense in the majors.

