                            2004 Gold Glove Winners
                            -----------------------

By Tom Tippett
December 6, 2004

Welcome to our annual review of the Rawlings Gold Glove awards, which are given 
to the top fielders in each league as selected by a vote of the managers and 
coaches that is taken before the end of the regular season. 

Writing this article is a natural extension of the work we've been doing each 
winter since 1986 to develop fielding ratings for the annual Diamond Mind 
Baseball season disk.  To come up with accurate ratings, we:

- evaluate team defense using statistics such as the percentage of grounders and 
fly balls turned into outs

- look at range factors, which are assists and/or putouts per nine defensive 
innings, keeping in mind that range factors can be severely biased by the nature 
of a team's pitching staff:  the left/right mix, strikeout rates, and tendency 
to generate ground balls versus fly balls

- use play-by-play data licensed from STATS, Inc., to compute adjusted range 
factors that take these potential biases into account and focus only on those 
putouts and assists that provide the best indication of fielding skill (catching 
a popup on the infield or taking a throw on a force play are examples of plays 
that generate assists and putouts without telling us much about fielding skill)

- use play-by-play data to compute the number of plays each player made above or 
below the norm for his position given the mix of balls hit his way; we call this 
our "net plays" analysis

- look at the STATS zone rating and our own zone rating to get another look at 
individual fielding performance, being careful not to be fooled by zone ratings 
that are significantly affected by error rates (our job is to come up with 
separate measures for range and error rates)

- assess the interaction between neighboring fielders, such as a third baseman 
cutting off grounders that might otherwise be handled by the shortstop, by 
examining the number of plays made by each fielder and by the team in the zones 
where the responsibility overlaps

- measure the percentage of batted balls turned into outs in home and road games 
to assess how each park influences measures of team and individual defense

- use play-by-play data to measure other skills that are specific to certain 
positions, such as the ability of middle infielders to turn double plays, the 
ability of pitchers and catchers to shut down the running game, and the ability 
of outfielders to prevent runners from taking extra bases on hits and fly balls

- cross-check individual players against our team defense measures to make sure 
they are consistent

- use the video clips on MLB.com to watch a large number of plays involving 
fielders for whom our analysis suggests a level of performance that is 
inconsistent with their reputations 

We believe very strongly that it is only through a combination of these methods 
that one can accurately evaluate defensive performance.  (For a more detailed 
description of this approach, see the Evaluating Defense article on our web 
site.)

Do the Gold Glove voters have this information at their disposal when making 
their selections?  It's extremely doubtful.  More likely, their votes are based 
on traditional fielding statistics, reputations, and appearances.  That's not 
necessarily a bad thing.  In a meaningful number of cases each year, our 
analysis concurs with the Gold Glove selections, in part because the best 
fielders are going to look good no matter how you evaluate them. 

But there are some differences, so we'll go position by position, commenting on 
the Gold Glove winners (listed in the title for all positions other than 
outfield) and other candidates that we believe were deserving of serious 
consideration. 


Pitchers (Kenny Rogers, Greg Maddux)
------------------------------------

If you're looking for pitchers who fielded their position without making an 
error, the list begins with Steve Trachsel (50 error-free chances), Brian 
Lawrence (49), Mike Maroth and Freddie Garcia (48), and Russ Ortiz (45).

If you can forgive an error or two in favor of a guy who makes a lot of plays, 
then your leading candidates are Livan Hernandez (2 errors in 84 chances), Greg 
Maddux (1 in 77), Kirk Rueter (1 in 70), Kenny Rogers (1 in 65), Corey Lidle (1 
in 62), and Tom Glavine (1 in 60).

But this approach is simplistic, mainly because a pitcher's own tendency to 
induce ground balls is a huge factor in the number of assists and putouts he 
gets.  Fielding skill helps, of course, but you can pad your numbers if you can 
get batters to hit it back to you in the first place.

A group of pitchers emerges when you consider the relationship of plays made to 
opportunities.  Among the standouts in 2004 were Kenny Rogers (a Gold Glover in 
2002), Jon Garland, Javier Vazquez, Mike Mussina (a Gold Glover in 2003), Mark 
Mulder, Steve Sparks, and Livan Hernandez.  

But it's hard to judge pitchers on only one season because they typically get 
only a few dozens chances to make plays, while other fielders get hundreds of 
opportunities.  So it's worth noting that Rogers, Sparks, Tom Glavine, Kirk 
Rueter, Hernandez, Vazquez, Garland, Trachsel, and Mussina have been near the 
top of this list for years.

Kenny Rogers was an excellent pick, in my view, because he topped the charts in 
turning batted balls into outs, was among the leaders in total chances while 
making only one error, and controlled the running game (only 2 steals in 7 
attempts), and has proven over the years that this was not a fluke.  In my view, 
Rogers should be on a three-year streak.  He won in 2002 and 2004 and was my 
pick (over Mussina) in 2003.

Javier Vazquez is always at or near the top of our rankings in converting 
opportunities into outs.  And, like Rogers, he allowed only 2 steals in 7 
attempts all year.  If Vazquez was still in the NL, I might be making a case for 
his selection, but I can't nominate him ahead of Rogers.

The NL race comes down to Livan Hernandez and Kirk Rueter, two men who are 
always at or near the top of the class.  I gave the nod to Rueter in 2003, but 
Hernandez is my choice this time.  Hernandez led the majors in total chances 
despite being near the league average in ground-ball percentage.  He did make a 
couple of errors, but he more than made up for that by leading the majors in 
double plays.

Maddux trailed Hernandez in total chances by 7 and in double plays by 7.  His 
only edge was in making just one error to Livan's two.  But Maddux had more 
balls hit his way, and he was only a little above average in turning those 
batted balls into outs.  Meanwhile, Hernandez was number one in the NL among 
pitchers with at least 125 innings.

By the way, in the past five years, Maddux leads all pitchers with 389 total 
chances.  He made 7 errors in that span, while the average pitcher with that 
many chances would have made 16.  It's not hard to see why voters could see 
Maddux as a top fielder at his position.

But Maddux's ability to induce ground balls is a big part of the reason why his  
totals are high.  Hernandez has almost as many chances (despite a normal ground-
ball rate) and a slightly better fielding percentage, while Rueter has made only 
1 error in 279 chances in those five years.  In my view, Maddux continues to 
receive more than his fair share of these awards.


Catchers (Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Matheny)
---------------------------------------

Only five AL catchers started at least 120 games at the position, and none of 
them were over 126, so there aren’t a lot of candidates to choose from.  Unless 
you’re going to go with someone who spent a lot of time on the bench, the Gold 
Glove has to go to one of Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Varitek, Jorge Posada, Victor 
Martinez, or Javy Lopez.  If you relax the playing time threshold, you’d have to 
consider Damian Miller, but I don’t think his 109 starts are enough.

Rodgriguez has the best arm among these five.  At his peak, he threw out half or 
more of the runners who dared challenge him.  His caught stealing percentages 
have been average in recent years, and were only a little better than the other 
four candidates in 2004, but he was alone among them in discouraging runners 
from even attempting to run while he was playing.

Jason Varitek rises to the top of the list when it comes to passed balls and 
errors.  His two errors were second fewest in the league (behind Damian Miller’s 
one) and his five passed balls were second fewest (Rodriguez had three) among 
catchers with at least 100 starts.  Rodriguez made 11 errors, though, and the 
other candidates trailed Varitek by a good margin in both categories.

Because of his history, Rodriguez is the obvious choice.  But before we take the 
easy road and endorse his selection, let’s take a moment to consider Varitek.  

Varitek is highly regarded as a handler of pitchers, on the field through pitch 
selection and off the field through pregame preparation.  His arm is better than 
the numbers indicate because he’s been saddled with a lot of pitchers who can’t 
hold runners (Nomo, Lowe, Wakefield) and, for a while, a manager (Jimy Williams) 
and pitching coach (Joe Kerrigan) who preferred that pitchers focus almost 
exclusively on the hitter.  

Still, we view Varitek’s arm as average even after cutting him some slack for 
catching a guy like Derek Lowe, who allowed 34 steals in 36 attempts in 2004.  
Furthermore, Rodgriguez has good credentials as a handler of pitchers, too, 
having helped Florida’s young pitchers win a World Series in 2003 and Detroit’s 
young staff reduce by 5% the number of total bases and walks allowed from 2003 
to 2004.  My vote goes to Rodriguez.

Mike Matheny was similar to Rodriguez in that his caught stealing percentage was 
ordinary but few dared to challenge his arm.  Matheny also excelled in other 
aspects of the game, posting the best fielding percentage in the majors (only 
one error), allowing only two passed balls, and calling pitches for a staff that 
surprised everyone by leading the league in fewest runs allowed.

Jason Kendall was a workhorse (145 starts), made only two passed balls, and was 
above average in throwing out runners, but his 10 errors were a little on the 
high side.

Brian Schneider is a very strong candidate, leading the league in caught 
stealing percentage, ranking among the best in passed balls and errors, and 
carrying a good reputation for handling pitchers.  Like Matheny, Schneider 
wasn’t challenged often in 2004, and when he was, he responded by throwing out a 
much higher percentage.  To me, that’s enough to overcome the very slight edge 
that Matheny had in other areas, and my vote goes to Schneider.


First basemen (Darin Erstad, Todd Helton)
-----------------------------------------

In the AL, Darin Erstad made the uncommon transition from center fielder to 
first baseman and took home a Gold Glove in his first full year at the new 
position.  This did not come as a surprise, however, as Erstad looked terrific 
in a half-season of work at first base in 1999.  (You may recall that the voters 
awarded the 1999 Gold Glove to Rafael Palmeiro even though he was mainly a DH 
and played only 28 games in the field.)

Despite starting only 124 games at first base, Erstad didn't have any serious 
challengers this year.  It's hard to hold playing time against a guy when only 
one first sacker in the league (Scott Hatteberg, with 143) started more than 140 
games.  Doug Mientkiewicz had another good year despite some nagging injuries 
that reduced his effectiveness early in the year, but he took part in only 125 
games, and 25 of those appearances were as a late-inning defensive sub.  In any 
case, Erstad had the better season in the field, and he would have been my 
choice even if playing time was equal.

The NL picture was a little muddier, with incumbent Derrek Lee in the mix along 
with Todd Helton and several newcomers who showed well.  Helton was the choice 
of the voters, and I agree.  He has always been at or near the top in our range 
rankings, his .997 fielding percentage led the league, and he was a little 
better than average in starting double plays.  Plus, his teammates didn't make a 
lot of throwing errors while he was manning the position.

Lee trailed Helton in range, fielding percentage, and throwing errors by his 
teammates.  He was better at starting double plays, but not enough to unseat 
Helton overall.

Even though it was his first full season at first base, Albert Pujols was right 
there with Helton in range and the prevention of throwing errors.  Helton had 
the edge in fielding percentage and starting double plays, while Pujols was 
merely average in those areas.  Still, it was a very good season for Pujols, who 
continues to be one of the best all-around players in the game.

You may recall that Pujols began his big-league career at third, so when he was 
moved from left field to the infield, it wasn't as big a change as you might 
think.  He was a slightly-below-average third baseman, but it's not unusual for 
third-sackers to shine when moved across the diamond.  
 

Second basemen (Bret Boone, Luis Castillo)
------------------------------------------

I’m trying to find something to support Boone’s selection.  In the past, I’ve 
been able to fall back on fielding percentage as a reason why the voters went 
this way, but Boone wasn’t his usual reliable self in 2004, making more errors 
(14) than all but three other second basemen in the majors.

It can’t be his range.  Seattle’s defense was among the game’s worst in batting 
average allowed on grounders to the right side.  Our system gives Boone credit 
for an average number of plays on the balls hit his way, so we’re not saying the 
team’s poor showing is all Boone’s fault.  But other range measures are even 
less kind.  Using the STATS zone rating, he ranked last among major leaguers 
with 1000 innings, and he was last among regulars in range factor.  Those range 
factor numbers are highly misleading because he played behind a fly-ball staff, 
but even if you adjust for that, it’s not enough to move him all the way from 
the bottom to the top.  His double play performance is nothing special.  And at 
age 35, he’s not exactly in his prime.  I just don’t get it.

So who should we be looking at?  Rey Sanchez can still pick ‘em with the best, 
but he played only half a season.  Omar Infante looked good but started only 97 
games.  That leaves us with two players whose teams were one-two in the league 
in lowest batting average on grounders to the right side, Toronto’s Orlando 
Hudson and Anaheim’s Adam Kennedy.

And there’s not a whole lot of difference between them.  Hudson led the league 
in assists and range factor, but his pitching staff produced a lot more ground 
balls than did Kennedy’s.  Adjusted for opportunities, we show that Kennedy made 
a few more plays.  Hudson was a little more reliable, matching Kennedy’s total 
of 12 errors while handling 82 more chances.  As a pivot man, Hudson turned a 
higher percentage of double plays but was much less efficient in starting double 
plays.  Both of these double play measures are influenced by the quality of the 
shortstops, of course, but I’d give Kennedy a small edge here.

It’s a toss-up, really, but I’ll go with Kennedy based on a stronger and more 
consistent history.

In the NL, I have no problem endorsing the selection of Luis Castillo.  By any 
measure, his range is among the best.  Plus, he made only six errors and he’s 
terrific on the pivot.  In different ways, Placido Polanco, Mark Loretta, and 
Aaron Miles had good seasons, too, but nobody else displayed an all-around 
defensive game to match Castillo’s.


Third basemen (Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen)
----------------------------------------

Eric Chavez took home his fourth Gold Glove, and his only serious competition 
was Alex Rodriguez, a former Gold Glover at shorstop.

In past editions of this article, I’ve noted that Chavez led the league in 
several fielding stats.  Because an injury limited him to 125 starts, his raw 
totals aren’t as impressive this year, but they’re still quite good on a rate 
basis.

Chavez led the AL in range factor for the fourth year in a row, but his pitching 
staff is huge help.  The Oakland hurlers led the league in ground ball 
percentage and ranked second in the majors in batters faced by left-handed 
pitchers.  More lefty pitchers means more right-handed batters, and right-handed 
batters are much more likely to hit ground balls to third.  So Chavez gets more 
than his share of opportunities to make plays.

That’s not to say that Chavez isn’t a good fielder.  He is.  His range is 
consistently above average, especially going to his right, his error rates are 
always low, and he’s a little above average in his ability to start double 
plays.  It’s just that his pitchers and a home park with huge tracts of foul 
territory create an environment where his assist and putout totals are higher 
than normal for someone of his ability.

My choice for 2004 is Alex Rodriguez, owner of another highly misleading range 
factor.  A-Rod’s range factor was artificially depressed by playing behind a fly 
ball staff that was among the most right-handed in the game.  More sophisticated 
metrics make it clear that Rodriguez was well above average in both range and 
reliability, though his ability to start 5-4-3 double plays left something to be 
desired.

It’s a very close call between Chavez and Rodriguez, so I wouldn’t criticize 
anyone who voted for Chavez.  But I would have gone the other way.

Scott Rolen is a perennial standout who has made far more plays relative to the 
norm for his position than any other NL fielder over the past six years.  After 
what appeared to be an off year in 2003, he bounced back to his normal level of 
dominance in 2004.  His range is outstanding, he starts a lot of double plays, 
and he doesn’t make errors.

Normally, this would be a slam dunk, but Adrian Beltre was every bit as good in 
the field as he was at the plate, and his defensive numbers were right there 
with Rolen’s in 2004.

I’ll give the nod to Rolen for two reasons.  First, he’s established the ability 
to play at this level, while Beltre has done this only once.  And, second, 
Dodger Stadium has shown a tendency to help infielders, suggesting that a small 
part of Beltre’s performance might be due to his environment.


Shortstops (Derek Jeter, Cesar Izturis)
---------------------------------------

I was very surprised not to see Miguel Tejada’s name when the AL Gold Gloves 
were announced last month.  After all, he has a good reputation for defense.  He 
started every game.  He led the league in assists, double plays, and range 
factor, and was second in putouts.  But Tejada made 24 errors, and while that’s 
only a little worse than average for someone with so many chances, it must have 
been enough to sink his candidacy in the eyes of the voters.

The other shortstops in the league had flaws, too.  The guys with good range 
made a lot of errors or didn’t play enough.  The reliable ones, including Derek 
Jeter, weren’t overly impressive on the range front.  

It would be a lot easier if one player was near the top in most areas, but that 
simply wasn’t the case.  Jeter isn’t a bad choice, but my vote goes to Tejada, 
whose range and everyday availability were more than enough to compensate for a 
handful of extra errors.

The NL shortstop pool presents us with two top choices, Cesar Izturis and Jack 
Wilson.  Adam Everett would have made this a trio, but he started only 97 games.

Izturis and Wilson were both well above average in range, and Izturis teamed 
with Adrian Beltre to form the most dominant left side in the game.  Their 
batting average allowed on grounders to the left side was head and shoulders 
better than that of the Cardinals, who ranked second in the majors.

Izturis was also among the league leaders in fielding percentage and performed 
well on the double play.  Wilson’s double-play numbers were better, and his 
fielding percentage topped the league average, so in any other year, he’d be a 
fine choice.  But I’m happy to endorse the selection of Izturis, with a tip of 
the cap to Wilson and Edgar Renteria.


Outfielders
-----------

You won't get an argument from me about the AL choices, which were Ichiro Suzuki 
of Seattle, Minnesota's Torii Hunter, and Toronto’s Vernon Wells.

Seattle (with some help from their home park) and Minnesota once again had the 
league’s top outfield defenses, so it’s no surprise that two of their players 
would be selected.

The top left fielder in the league was Carl Crawford of the Devil Rays.  Hunter, 
Wells, and Seattle’s Randy Winn led the center field contingent, and the right 
field honors came down to Suzuki and Jacque Jones of the Twins.

I believe Ichiro is a little overrated, but he does have very good range and a 
terrific throwing arm, so if you’re going to pick a corner outfielder, Ichiro’s 
a good choice.  Jones demonstrated a little more range and made one fewer error, 
but his arm isn’t a match for Ichiro’s.  I have no problem with the selection of 
Ichiro, though I’d like to see Jones get some recognition one of these years.  
And I won’t be surprised if Crawford enters the Gold Glove picture at some 
point.

Winn’s raw numbers were terrific in 2004, but he plays in a park where fly balls 
go to die.  Safeco Field is the league’s worst park for batting average, so we 
need to be careful when evaluating Seattle outfielders.  After adjusting for the 
effects of their respective home parks, I believe Hunter and Wells were the best 
choices among the league’s center fielders.  

Over in the NL, where the voters selected Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, and Steve 
Finley.  

None of the league's corner outfielders stood out.  Richard Hidalgo, Geoff 
Jenkins, and Juan Encarnacion were above average, but not by enough to warrant 
serious consideration.  

So the voters were right to stick with center fielders, and I’ll quickly endorse 
Andruw Jones as one of those picks.  I still think he’s a little over-rated -- 
it’s been a few years since he was a dominant defensive player -- but he’s well 
above average and a worthy selection.

By the way, regular readers may recall that I spent a few paragraphs analyzing 
Jones’s declining defensive numbers in last year’s Gold Glove review.  This 
year, I spent a couple of days looking at over 400 video clips of fly balls and 
line drives hit into Jones’ territory in 2004.  Based on that video review, I 
believe the numbers aren’t lying.  Jones looked good, but he didn’t blow me away 
the way he did a few years ago.

After Jones, it gets a little tougher.  Mike Cameron was above average but 
didn’t dominate the NL the way he’s dominated the AL in recent years.  Steve 
Finley, 39, isn’t covering enough ground to be a Gold Glover at this stage of 
his career.  Carlos Beltran was a National Leaguer for only half a season.  
Milton Bradley didn’t play enough.  Mark Kotsay, one of my choices last year, is 
in the AL now.

Jim Edmonds, 34, doesn’t make as many plays as people think, but for sheer 
entertainment value, you've got to love him.  He’s made a ton of memorable 
catches in his career, including one in Cincinnati this year when he went 
farther over the wall to pull back a homer than any outfielder I’ve ever seen.  
I'm not convinced that Edmonds is a better defender than Cameron, but I won't 
argue with his selection.

My third choice is Jay Payton of the Padres.  The spacious outfield in Petco 
Park boosts his range numbers to some degree, but he’s been an above-average 
defensive outfielder for several years, and his road numbers were good, too.  
Payton and Edmonds tied for the league league in assists by center fielders.


Recap
-----

Here's how my selections compare with those of the voters:

        ------- American -------      ------- National -------
  Pos   Voters      Diamond Mind      Voters      Diamond Mind

  P     Rogers      same              Maddux      Hernandez 
  C     Rodriguez   same              Matheny     Schneider
  1B    Erstad      same              Helton      same
  2B    Boone       Kennedy           Castillo    same
  3B    Chavez      Rodriguez         Rolen       same
  SS    Jeter       Tejada            Izturis     same
  OF    Ichiro      same              Edmonds     same
  OF    Hunter      same              Jones       same
  OF    Wells       same              Finley      Payton

We agree on twelve of the eighteen selections, which is at the high end of the 
range.  Last year we agreed on nine.  In 2002, that number was eight, and it was 
twelve in 2001.  


Other players of note
---------------------

Here are a few other players whose defensive performances we noticed, for better 
or worse, in 2004:

Nomar Garciaparra, SS –- His Poor rating for range in 2004 is entirely based on 
his inability to play at full speed.  He missed the first ten weeks of the 
season with an inflamed Achilles tendon.  Upon his return, the Achilles wasn’t 
100%, forcing him to sit out every so often, and limiting his ability to move in 
the field.  He’s always been an average or above-average shortstop in the past, 
so if a winter’s rest allows him to show up at spring training at 100%, I expect 
to see him bounce back in 2005.

Khalil Greene, SS – According to Baseball America’s 2004 Prospect Handbook, 
Greene "doesn’t have the speed or arm strength of a classic shortstop, but he 
has ... tremendous hands, a quick first step, and uncanny instincts ..."  In his 
first full season in the majors, Greene showed very good range, strong 
performance on double plays, and made regularly appearances on the highlight 
reels.  I’ve always felt that instincts are more important than pure 
athleticism, and Greene appears to be a good example.

Reggie Sanders, OF –- After earning our Excellent rating in 2002, Sanders 
slipped to Average in 2003.  He bounced back a little this year, and we rated 
him as Very Good in both corner positions.  


