                            2005 Gold Glove Winners
                            -----------------------

By Tom Tippett
December 12, 2005

Welcome to our annual review of the Rawlings Gold Glove awards, which are given 
to the top fielders in each league as selected by a vote of the managers and 
coaches that is taken before the end of the regular season. 

Writing this article is a natural extension of the work we've been doing each 
winter since 1986 to develop fielding ratings for the annual Diamond Mind 
Baseball season disk.  To come up with accurate ratings, we:

- evaluate team defense using statistics such as the percentage of grounders and 
fly balls turned into outs

- look at range factors, which are assists and/or putouts per nine defensive 
innings, keeping in mind that range factors can be severely biased by the nature 
of a team's pitching staff:  the left/right mix, strikeout rates, and tendency 
to generate ground balls versus fly balls

- use play-by-play data licensed from STATS, Inc., to compute adjusted range 
factors that take these potential biases into account and focus only on those 
putouts and assists that provide the best indication of fielding skill (catching 
a popup on the infield or taking a throw on a force play are examples of plays 
that generate assists and putouts without telling us much about fielding skill)

- use play-by-play data to compute the number of plays each player made above or 
below the norm for his position given the mix of balls hit his way; we call this 
our "net plays" analysis

- look at the STATS zone rating and our own zone rating to get another look at 
individual fielding performance, being careful not to be fooled by zone ratings 
that are significantly affected by error rates (our job is to come up with 
separate measures for range and error rates)

- assess the interaction between neighboring fielders, such as a third baseman 
cutting off grounders that might otherwise be handled by the shortstop, by 
examining the number of plays made by each fielder and by the team in the zones 
where the responsibility overlaps

- measure the percentage of batted balls turned into outs in home and road games 
to assess how each park influences measures of team and individual defense

- use play-by-play data to measure other skills that are specific to certain 
positions, such as the ability of middle infielders to turn double plays, the 
ability of pitchers and catchers to shut down the running game, and the ability 
of outfielders to prevent runners from taking extra bases on hits and fly balls

- cross-check individual players against our team defense measures to make sure 
they are consistent

- use the video clips on MLB.com to watch a large number of plays involving 
fielders for whom our analysis suggests a level of performance that is 
inconsistent with their reputations 

We believe very strongly that it is only through a combination of these methods 
that one can accurately evaluate defensive performance.

Do the Gold Glove voters have this information at their disposal when making 
their selections?  It's extremely doubtful.  More likely, their votes are based 
on traditional fielding statistics, reputations, and appearances.  That's not 
necessarily a bad thing.  In a meaningful number of cases each year, our 
analysis concurs with the Gold Glove selections, in part because the best 
fielders are going to look good no matter how you evaluate them. 

But there are some differences, so we'll go position by position, commenting on 
the Gold Glove winners (listed in the title for all positions other than 
outfield) and other candidates that we believe were deserving of serious 
consideration. 


Pitchers (Kenny Rogers, Greg Maddux)
------------------------------------

One important aspect of fielding performance is the ability to avoid making 
errors.  It's not the only aspect, or even the most important aspect, but it 
does matter.  

The leaders among pitchers who fielded their position without making an error 
are Josh Towers (60 error-free chances), Tom Glavine (55), John Smoltz (53),  
Roy Oswalt (50), and Freddy Garcia (47).  Garcia was also in last year's error-
free top five.

If you can forgive an error or two in favor of a guy who makes a lot of plays, 
then your leading Gold Glove candidates are Jake Westbrook (2 errors in 82 
chances), Derek Lowe (1 in 70), Kenny Rogers (1 in 66), Tim Hudson (1 in 64), 
and Livan Hernandez (1 in 62).

But this approach is simplistic, mainly because a pitcher's tendency to induce 
ground balls is a huge factor in the number of assists and putouts he gets.  
Fielding skill helps, of course, but you can pad your numbers if you can get 
batters to hit it back to you in the first place.

A group of pitchers emerges when you consider the relationship of plays made to 
opportunities.  Among the standouts in 2005 were the following pitchers who 
earned Diamond Mind's Excellent range rating:  Kirk Rueter, Chien-Ming Wang, 
Zack Greinke, Mark Buehrle, Chan Ho Park, Kenny Rogers, Javier Vazquez, Dave 
Williams, Kirk Saarloos, and Jon Garland.  

But it's hard to judge pitchers on only one season because they typically get 
only a few dozen chances to make plays, while other fielders get hundreds of 
opportunities.  So it's worth noting that Rogers, Rueter, Vazquez, and Garland 
have been near the top of this list for at least the last couple of years.

Kenny Rogers was an excellent pick, in my view, because he did it all.  He was 
excellent in turning batted balls into outs, was among the leaders in total 
chances while making only one error, led the league with seven double plays, and 
controlled the running game (only three steals allowed all season).  In my view, 
Rogers should be on a four-year streak.  He won in 2002 and 2004 and was my pick 
(over Mussina) in 2003.

Like Rogers, Mark Buehrle performed well in all aspects, making a lot of plays, 
holding his error total down (only two), and controlling the running game (five 
pickoffs, only eight steals allowed).  From the first time I saw him pitch, a 
few years ago, I've liked his game.  But Rogers was just a little better across 
the board.

The NL race comes down to Kirk Rueter and ... well, I guess it comes down to 
Rueter.  Rueter had a horrible year as a pitcher, and that cost him his job 
after 18 starts.  Still, he led our range rankings, made only one error, started 
five double plays, and completely shut down the running game (one steal in five 
tries).  

This is not new.  Over the past five seasons, Rueter has made only two errors in 
273 chances, and he ranks 7th in total chances, so this is not an artificially 
low error total.  He's tied with Livan Hernandez for the lead in double plays 
with 32.  And he has allowed only 9 steals, an average of less than two per 
season, while helping to gun down 22 other runner who dared challenge him.

Meanwhile, the voters continue to give the award to Greg Maddux, apparently 
without stopping to consider whether there are other worthy candidates.  In this 
same five-year span, Maddux does lead the majors with 365 total chances, thanks 
to his ability to generate a ton of ground balls.  Compared with Rueter, 
however, Maddux has converted a smaller percentage of his chances into outs.  
He's also made 8 errors to Rueter's 2 and allowed 123 more stolen bases.

If the voters carefully studied this position and come to the conclusion that 
Rueter didn't play enough to qualify, I could understand that.  If so, who's the 
next best candidate?  

Maddux is a good one, to be sure, but Tom Glavine was better.  Glavine made 
three fewer errors, converted a higher percentage of his opportunities, came up 
one short of matching Maddux in double plays, and stopped enemy runners in their 
tracks (four steals in nine tries).

I'd like to recognize Glavine for his fine season, and I won't argue with you if 
you feel his extra innings are enough to push him ahead of Rueter.  But I'm 
going with Rueter.


Catchers (Jason Varitek, Mike Matheny)
---------------------------------------

Let's begin our review by combining the errors and passed balls for the AL 
catchers who started at least 120 games at the position:

                       GS   E+PB
                      ---   ----

  Victor Martinez     139     8
  AJ Pierzynski       124     8
  Ivan Rodriguez      121     8
  Jason Kendall       146    11
  Jorge Posada        123    11  
  Gregg Zaun          121    13
  Jason Varitek       127    15
  Toby Hall           122    17


Hmmm.  Not much of a case for Jason Varitek, even if you cut him some slack for 
catching a knuckleballer (Tim Wakefield) a few times.

Four AL catchers allowed more than 75 stolen bases -- Kendall (101), Martinez 
(96), Posada (90), and Pierzynski (79) -- none of whom were above the league 
average in the percentage of runners thrown out.

On the other hand, Ivan Rodriguez was back in form, gunning down 52% of the 
brave (or stupid) runners who thought they could best him.  I simply don't see 
how the voters could choose anyone but Rodriguez.  I love Varitek's overall game 
and his professionalism, but Pudge had the better defensive year, allowing about 
half as many steals, errors, and passed balls.

In the NL, only Mike Matheny started more than 120 games, so we need to lower 
the bar a bit to find other candidates.  Brad Ausmus started 118 games and tied 
Matheny for the league lead in fielding percentage.  Yadier Molina's arm blew 
away the competition, with only 36% of runners successfully stealing when he was 
behind the plate, but Molina made 7 errors and allowed 8 passed balls in 111 
starts.  Johnny Estrada was steady (good range, 2 errors, 2 passed balls) but 
not especially effective in the running game.  Brian Schneider's was second in 
caught stealing percentage but in the middle of the pack in other measures.

All things considered, my choice is Molina.  The extra errors and passed balls, 
which add up to about 10 more than Ausmus and Matheny, are more than offset by 
the value of Molina's arm.  He led the league in pickoffs, and the other two 
allowed dozens more steals.


First basemen (Mark Teixeira, Derrek Lee)
-----------------------------------------

The AL is not exactly flush with good fielding first baseman.  The voters opted 
for Mark Teixeira over Darin Erstad, and nobody else deserves serious 
consideration.

Teixeira had a very good defensive year, finishing among the league leaders in 
turning batted balls into outs, and leading the league in fielding percentage.  
Erstad posted similar range numbers and was second in fielding percentage by a 
narrow margin.  It's very close, but my vote goes to Erstad because he was quite 
a bit better than Teixeira at starting double plays.

In the NL, Sean Casey led the position in fielding percentage, but was only a 
little above average in range.  Among the leaders in range -- Albert Pujols, 
Derrek Lee, and Doug Mientkiewicz -- Lee is the only one without a blemish on 
his record.  Pujols tied with Carlos Delgado for the major-league lead in 
errors, with 14, and Mientkiewicz played only half a season.  Todd Helton had 
another very good year in the field.  Lee's my choice.  
 

Second basemen (Orlando Hudson, Luis Castillo)
----------------------------------------------

Finally!  The AL voters picked someone with very good range, so I don't have to 
write about Bret Boone this year.

Based on our range studies, there were three viable candidates in the AL this 
year -- Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, and Ron Belliard.  Oddly, Alfonso Soriano 
was the only AL second baseman to start more than 140 games.  Ellis started only 
109 games, Hudson only 120, and Belliard 139.

None of these three is perfect.  Ellis made the most plays, but he's a little 
weak on the double play and didn't play enough.  Hudson didn't play a lot, 
either.  Belliard also made a lot of plays, but he made more than twice as many 
errors as Hudson and was only a little above average starting and turning double 
plays.  

I'm happy to endorse the selection of Hudson, who was strong in range, okay on 
the double play, and topped the league in fielding percentage.  In addition to 
Ellis and Belliard, honorable mention goes to Brian Roberts and Adam Kennedy.

The NL was loaded with good candidates, even after the midseason trade of 
Placido Polanco to the AL.  Chase Utley, who took over for Polanco in 
Philadelphia, made a ton of plays, but his 15 errors were fourth-worst in the 
league.  

Mark Grudzielanek continued to impress, tying for the league lead in fielding 
percentage, performing well on the double play, and showing good (but not great) 
range.

Luis Castillo has always looked good in the past, especially on the double play, 
but his range numbers were down this year, perhaps because he battled a hip 
flexor, a strained quad, and a tight hamstring at various times during the year.  
Those injuries limited him to 116 starts.

My choice is Craig Counsell, whose defensive ability has been hidden by how he's 
been used.  He was drafted as a shortstop and acquitted himself well at that 
position for Milwaukee in 2004.  Earlier in his big-league career, Counsell was 
used in a utility role and looked very good to excellent at both second and 
third.

In his first full season at second base, Counsell was among the leaders in 
range, tied for the league lead in fielding percentage, and was strong on the 
pivot.  There's nothing not to like about his defensive game, and I hope he gets 
some recognition before age (he's 35) catches up with him.


Third basemen (Eric Chavez, Mike Lowell)
----------------------------------------

When Adrian Beltre moved to the AL, it set up an interesting battle for the Gold 
Glove.  In the NL, Beltre often challenged Scott Rolen for top honors.  In his 
first season in the AL, Beltre slumped at the plate, and our defensive measures 
showed a decline in that part of his game, too.  He was still one of the 
league's better fielders, but not quite good enough to wrest the award from 
Chavez.

Corey Koskie continues to handle the position well, but he played less than half 
a season, and he comes up a little short of Chavez in most respects anyway.  The 
voters got this one right, in my view.

Alex Rodriguez was my choice a year ago, but in 2005 the left side of the New 
York infield was among the game's worst at converting ground balls into outs.  
A-Rod and Derek Jeter share responsibility for this weak showing despite all the 
hype about their defensive skills.

With Scott Rolen limited to 55 games, NL voters had to find someone else this 
year.  They opted for Mr. Reliable, Mike Lowell, who led the league in fielding 
percentage by a very wide margin.  In fact, among players with at least 1000 
total chances at third, Lowell leads the majors in fielding percentage over the 
past five years.  (Polanco and Counsell were slightly better in less playing 
time.)  Relative to a league-average fielder, Lowell has prevented more errors 
than any other third baseman during this period.

Lowell has also shown an above-average ability to field bunts and other slowly 
hit balls, and he's been strong starting double plays as well.  So why haven't 
we talked him up as a Gold Glove candidate in past years?  Because the NL has 
featured a few other guys -- Rolen, Beltre, and David Bell -- who have shown the 
ability to convert a much higher percentage of batted balls into outs.

In most cases, that playmaking ability is a more important measure of defensive 
performance than error rates.  A top fielder can rob opponents of 30-40 hits in 
a season, while a sure-handed fielder might save 5-10 outs by making fewer 
errors.

In this case, however, it's a much tougher call.  Bell demonstrated more range 
than Lowell, but he made 21 errors to Lowell's 6, and started only 22 double 
plays to Lowell's 34, even though Bell started 22 more games.  My vote goes to 
David Bell, but I can easily see why the voters thought Lowell was a deserving 
candidate.

Morgan Ensberg deserves mention, too, and Freddy Sanchez, a former shortstop,  
showed enough in 55 starts to suggest that he might contend for a Gold Glove if 
given a full season at third in the future.


Shortstops (Derek Jeter, Omar Vizquel)
--------------------------------------

After a stretch of years when the AL had all the best shortstops and the NL crop 
looked very thin, the action has shifted to the NL, at least on defense.  Adam 
Everett, Jack Wilson, Neifi Perez, Rafael Furcal, Alex Gonzalez, and Khalil 
Greene were impressive in 2005, and it's hard to find any AL shortstop who's in 
their league defensively.

The top AL candidate, in my view, was Juan Uribe of Chicago.  He showed very 
good range for the fourth year in a row, was a little better than the norm in 
fielding percentage, and had a small plus score on double plays.

Derek Jeter had a solid year, finishing second to Orlando Cabrera in fielding 
percentage.  But the left side of the Yankee infield was among the trailers in 
converting grounders into outs, and the middle of the Yankee infield was well 
below average on double plays.  I can't make a Gold Glove case out of that 
material.

Cabrera looks very smooth in the field, and he ran away with the fielding 
percentage crown this year, but his range is nothing special.  So Uribe's my 
pick in the AL.

As I mentioned above, there were at least six very good candidates in the NL 
this year.  That said, two of them separated themselves from the pack.

Adam Everett is a classic no-hit good-field shortstop, but there's no question 
about his ability to go get the ball.  Since he became a regular in 2003, he 
leads the majors in our favorite playmaking metric.

Jack Wilson was right there with Everett in range this year and has been good 
enough for long enough to show this was no fluke.  In addition, Wilson was among 
the leaders in fielding percentage and continues to exceed the norm in starting 
and turning double plays.

For the three-year period from 2003-2005, I'd go with Everett.  For lifetime 
achievement, I'd pick Vizquel.  But for 2005, my vote goes to Wilson.


Outfielders
-----------

This may be the year's most controversial position, at least in my eyes.  

The voters went with the status quo, for the most part, bringing back all three 
AL incumbents (Ichiro, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells) and returning Andruw Jones 
and Jim Edmonds in the NL.  Only Bobby Abreu was a first-time winner.

But our analysis suggests that a horde of younger players has caught and passed 
these established stars in recent years.

The top left fielders in 2005 were four guys -- Scott Podsednik, Coco Crisp, 
Randy Winn, and Carl Crawford -- who have shown the ability to handle center 
field in the past.

In right field, we continue to see very strong numbers and limited playing time 
from Austin Kearns.  Among the guys who played a lot, Geoff Jenkins, Ichiro, 
Alexis Rios, and Casey Blake impressed in our playmaking metrics.

The top center fielders were not the usual suspects.  Our rankings were topped 
by Nook Logan, Aaron Rowand, Curtis Granderson, Jeremy Reed, and Joey Gathright.  
Except for Rowand, who's 28, all of these guys are 25 or younger.  Defense is a 
young man's game, especially in the outfield, and it's not clear why the voters 
don't seem to know that.

Cleveland, Seattle, and Chicago led the AL in outfield defense, so it's not 
surprising to see players from those teams show up in this discussion.  But 
Safeco Field is one of the best pitcher's parks in the game, so we need to guard 
against over-rating the Seattle outfielders.

My first two AL selections are pretty easy.  I'll take the league's top two 
center fielders, Rowand and Logan.  After that, it's a very tough call, but I'm 
going to go with Crisp.  He and Podsednik were neck and neck, but I believe 
someone from Cleveland belongs on this list.

I'm not saying the three AL Gold Glove winners are stiffs, by the way.  Hunter 
continued to post strong numbers, but he started only 92 games and trailed 
Rowand and Logan in the rate stats anyway.  Ichiro is a very good right fielder 
and earns more than his share of style points.  Wells is a very capable center 
fielder who led all CFs with 12 assists.  And Johnny Damon's pretty good, too.

In the NL, I had a very hard time finding strong candidates.  None of the left 
fielders were impressive.  In center, only Willy Taveras earned our Very Good 
rating, with Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, and Carlos Beltran among the guys who were 
above average but a little shy of our Very Good threshold.  In right, Kearns 
stood out in his 103 starts.  Jenkins, and to a lesser degree, Jose Guillen, 
were the only other strong candidates.  

Mike Cameron didn't look nearly as good as he has in previous years.  Perhaps 
he's miscast as a right fielder and will rebound as San Diego's center fielder 
in 2006, assuming he doesn't rein in his aggressiveness after that horrific 
collision with Carlos Beltran.

Andruw Jones continues to show a slow and steady decline in our defensive 
measures.  I really don't see him as an elite defender at this stage in his 
career.  (Much more on Jones can be found in the last section of this note.)

The most puzzling of the NL selections was Bobby Abreu.  Most top corner 
outfielders -- I'm talking range here, not throwing -- are converted center 
fielders or guys who have shown they can handle center field when needed.  Abreu 
is not one of those guys, and he's been an average to below-average defender in 
right field for several years.  This wasn't even his best season.

Well, I guess I've talked about enough players, so it's time to make my picks.  
It's a thin crop, so it won't be easy.  

My first selection is Kearns.  In any other year, I'd be reluctant to pick 
someone who started only 64% of the time, but in this group, he stood out more 
than anyone else.

My second choice is Taveras, our top-rated NL center fielder.  It's hard to lead 
the league in fewest runs allowed, as Houston did this year, without having a 
pretty good defense behind the pitching staff.  Houston's defense in the corner 
outfield positions was nothing special, so Taveras deserves most of the credit.

My third choice is ... do I have to pick three this year?  Can't we just say it 
was a down year and move on?

Well, OK.  It's got to be a center fielder, because (after Kearns) none of the 
corner guys did enough to overcome the difference in degree of difficulty 
between those positions and center field.  I'm going to go for Edmonds by a hair 
over Beltran.


Recap
-----

Here's how my selections compare with those of the voters:

        ------- American -------      ------- National -------
  Pos   Voters      Diamond Mind      Voters      Diamond Mind

  P     Rogers      same              Maddux      Rueter 
  C     Varitek     Rodriguez         Matheny     Molina
  1B    Teixeira    Erstad            Lee         same
  2B    Hudson      same              Castillo    Counsell
  3B    Chavez      same              Lowell      Bell
  SS    Jeter       Uribe             Vizquel     Wilson
  OF    Hunter      Rowand            Jones       Kearns
  OF    Wells       Logan             Edmonds     same
  OF    Ichiro      Crisp             Abreu       Taveras

This year, we agreed on only five of the eighteen selections.  That's the lowest 
figure in at least the last five years.  From 2001 to 2004, we agreed on an 
average of 10 picks, with a low of 8 and a high of 12.  


Other players of note
---------------------

Here are a few other players whose defensive performances we noticed, for better 
or worse, in 2005:

Nomar Garciaparra, SS -- Last year, we gave him a Poor rating for range because 
he was slowed by a lingering Achilles injury.  At that time, we thought there 
was a good chance he would bounce back after a winter's rest.  He did indeed 
earn an Average rating for range at short this year, though he made a bunch of 
errors there and at third, a position that was new for him. 

Ken Griffey, CF -- We don't understand why Griffey continues to be used in 
center field.  His bat is still worth having in the lineup, to be sure, but 
after a series of debilitating leg injuries over the last several years, he just 
doesn't cover enough ground at this stage of his career.  He was last in the 
majors in our net plays analysis and last in the STATS zone rating.  His range 
factor was below average, but it would have been much worse than that had he not 
been playing behind a fly-ball staff.

Andruw Jones, CF -- We've already discussed Jones in the context of the Gold 
Glove selections, but because we took the (undoubtedly controversial) step of 
assigning him an Average range rating for 2005, we'd like to spend a little more 
time on this subject.  

We simply couldn't find any evidence to suggest that he was a plus defender in 
2005.  Believe me, we tried.  We know this rating will be used by other game 
companies to indicate that we don't know what we're doing.  We know we'll have 
to spend time defending this rating on our forum.  And we may lose a few 
customers, too.  After all, you can't watch a Braves game without hearing the 
announcers gush about his defense, so he must be great, right?

According to the STATS zone ratings, Jones was well below average.  His adjusted 
range factor, which takes the strikeout and ground-ball tendencies of the 
pitching staff into account, was below average.  He was below average in our 
zone rating and our net plays analysis.  His team's outfield defense was right 
around the league average.  Because most of the guys who played in LF and RF are 
at least average fielders in their own right, you'd expect to see the team 
defense be well above average if Jones was still one of the best in the game.

We looked for possible sources of bias in the data.  We looked at his home/road 
splits and the interactions with other fielders.  Over the past three winters, 
we've looked at more than a thousand video clips of plays that he's been 
involved in.  And we couldn't find anything to justify a higher rating.

It makes sense when you think about it.  Jones was a dominant outfielder when he 
was in his early to mid-twenties.  That Andruw Jones was a tall skinny kid who 
hit more than his share of triples and stole more than twenty bases a year.  
This Andruw Jones is an older, much heavier player who hits more homers and 
fewer triples, and steals five bases a year.  He doesn't have the same body, and 
he's not making nearly as many plays as he did in the late 1990s.  

This happens to just about everyone who bulks up and becomes one of the game's 
top power hitters.  Why wouldn't it happen to Jones, too?

Richie Sexson, 1B -- For several years, Sexson demonstrated average to very good 
range, but his defensive numbers were much worse in 2005.  He missed much of 
2004 with a shoulder injury, but he was well enough to have a terrific year at 
the plate.  However, he was last in the majors in the STATS zone rating and a 
borderline Fair/Poor in our own range analysis.  Based on past performance, we 
gave him the benefit of the doubt and assigned him our Fair rating this year.

  


